Bitcoin ended the first half of 2026 near $60,000 after falling about 32% since January, Binance Research reported. Half of 2026: Macro and Bitcoin report described the decline as the third straight quarterly loss across broader financial markets around the world.
The poor performance in the first half also extended Bitcoin’s long-term drawdown. According to the report, the assets have He fell More than 50% from its October 2025 record high near $126,000. It also spent 275 days below that peak, underscoring the depth and persistence of the current market downturn.
On-chain data signals market pressures
On-chain data showed that 10.83 million Bitcoins ended the period with an unrealized loss, while 9.22 million units remained profitable instead. This represents the first crossover of loss over profit during the current market cycle, making the conditions important for analysts, Binance Research said.
Similar crossovers have historically emerged near major Bitcoin market bottoms before a stronger rebound eventually follows, the researchers noted. However, they cautioned that historical patterns alone cannot assure that the current cycle will produce the same outcome.
Beyond on-chain signals, Binance attributed Bitcoin’s weak performance primarily to broader macroeconomic conditions rather than cryptocurrency-specific developments. The report said that markets shifted from liquidity-based expectations to economic fundamentals, as monetary policy remained restrictive throughout the first half of 2026.
Expectations for interest rates have also changed as hopes for strong cuts fade. Instead, futures markets reflected an 80% probability of another interest rate increase by the Fed before December. addition Pressure on financial markets.
Macro pressures are affecting Bitcoin
The report also said that rising real yields, a stronger US dollar, and a lack of liquidity continued to weigh on Bitcoin. While technology stocks have rebounded on optimism about artificial intelligence, Bitcoin has lagged behind several major asset classes over the same period.
The resilient US economy has also lowered expectations for the Fed to do so He cuts Interest rates coming soon. Binance Research said AI was a key driver of economic activity in the first quarter. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation rose to 3.4%, its highest level since late 2023, reinforcing concerns that price pressures remain stubborn.
This background has also weakened the demand for cryptocurrencies. US Bitcoin ETFs recorded $5.4 billion in net outflows during the first half of the year.
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