Markets do not believe that the US ceasefire against Iran will continue

The United States appears to have done so Announce Ceasefire yesterday regarding its offensive actions against Iran. But prediction markets are not very optimistic about how long this peace will last.

A Polymarket The contract requires a period of 14 continuous days without a US airstrike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly hitting Iranian territory, a percentage that has dropped from more than 60% to about 53% today.

A ceasefire is a permanent cessation of fighting, not just an announcement that leaders are taking a break.

This creates a very large gap. Traders estimate a roughly 50-50 probability that the United States will not be able to contain its will to fire for two full weeks.

Doubt is not paranoia. The United States and Iran ceased fire for a third day by Monday after 13 straight nights of US strikes, but President Donald Trump Axios said He was prepared to return to “very strong military action” if the talks failed.

Iran in the meantime to reject And direct negotiations are taking place, saying that mediators carry messages.

Countlessa prediction market that I developed DecryptionParent company Dastan is separately tracking whether the next formal, high-level round of peace talks between the US and Iran will begin by July 31. Its rules exclude technical meetings, telephone calls and letters exchanged through intermediaries unless they form part of an officially held high-level round.

Most of the money in such talks is delayed until next month.

We’ve watched this movie before. The April ceasefire sent Bitcoin and oil markets sharply higher, but analysts described it as “Fragile breathing chamber.“

Days later, forecast markets still doubted that shipping in the Strait of Hormuz would return to normal because ships were still turning back.

The Polymarket contract dated July 31 can remain open until mid-August because the required 14-day no-strike period only has to start by July 31.