Aave is under selling pressure. The market faces pricing risks. According to senior analyst Darkvost, what is happening to AAVE now is not a market problem – it is a protocol problem.
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A report from Darkfost identified a series of structural events that explain why selling pressure in Aave carries more weight than a standard altcoin correction. The protocol has entered what the analyst described as a negative spiral — a self-reinforcing decline that pushed AAVE below the psychological threshold of $100 in March and has yet to find a floor for the market to trust.
The events behind that vortex are defined and named. BGD Labs, one of Aave’s main technical contributing teams, has left the protocol. More recently, it was followed by Chaos Labs – a risk management company whose work directly drives the Aave protocol standards and security framework. These are not marginal shareholders. They are the people whose experience has strengthened the protocol’s credibility with institutional users and DeFi participants who evaluate Aave based on the quality of its risk infrastructure.
Internal disputes accompanied each departure. The cumulative effect on sentiment was immediate: investors who had been holding AAVE during the broader altcoin weakness were now choosing between surrendering at a loss or locking in nothing. Profit margin remains. Selling is not irrational. He is told.
On-chain data confirmed what the price had already suspected
Darkfost Exchange Reserve analysis Structural deterioration gives it its most measurable form. Since early February, AAVE reserves across exchanges have risen from 2.07 million to 2.23 million AAVE – a trend shift that has been steadily increasing rather than arriving as a single spike. Of this total, there are now 1.63 million AAVE on Binance alone, up from 1.57 million during the same period. Coins are trending on sale, and have been doing so for months.
What makes the current reading historically significant is not the absolute level, but where it stands relative to the long-term trend. Aave exchange reserves are now back above the 90-day moving average – ending a downward reserve trend that has been in place since April 2025. For about a year, reserves have been declining, reflecting holders keeping AAVE off exchanges and away from the direct sell side. This trend has been reversed. The trend that provided a structural basis for the asset has been reversed.
The timing heightens the anxiety. This reversal does not occur in a neutral market environment – it occurs in an environment that Darkfost explicitly identifies as unfavorable for holding altcoins. Structural stress and total stress point in the same direction simultaneously.
When exchange reserves rise, the intention to sell rises with them. The breakout of the 90-day moving average confirms that this is not a temporary fluctuation. It’s regime change.
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Aave breaks below $100 as long-term structure deteriorates
Aave decisively lost the psychological level of $100, confirming a structural collapse that extends beyond a typical altcoin correction. The weekly chart shows a clear rejection from the $300-350 area in 2025, followed by a sustained series of lower highs and an acceleration of downward momentum. The price is now trading below all major moving averages, with the 50-week (blue), 100-week (green), and 200-week (red) trending lower or flattening – an alignment that reflects ongoing overall weakness.
The lower leg is characterized by its speed. The sharp sell-off pushed the AAVE from the $180 area to below $100 with minimal consolidation, suggesting forced selling rather than orderly distribution. Trading volume expanded during this move, reinforcing the view that supply overwhelmed demand at key levels.
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Attempts to stabilize prices near current prices have so far lacked conviction. The market is pressing just below previous support, now acting as resistance, with no clear signs of accumulation. Structurally, this puts Aave in a weak position: failure to reclaim the $110-120 area leaves the door open for a continuation towards the previous cycle lows.
Until the price reclaims the major moving averages and rebuilds a higher high structure, AAVE remains in a confirmed downtrend driven by continued sell-side pressure.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
