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- Countless traders are becoming increasingly confident that the United States will put boots on the ground in Iran before the end of this month.
- Meanwhile, they expect Iran’s current ruling regime to remain in place by October.
- At the same time, countless traders predicted an 83% chance that WTI futures would reach $120 per barrel before falling to $55.
Traders became confident on Friday that US military personnel would actually enter Iranian territory after a US fighter jet was shot down.
At Myriad, a company-owned forecasting marketplace Decryption‘s DASTAN’s parent company, Users pencil case in There is a 90% chance that the United States will send its forces on the ground before the end of this month. This represents a sharp increase compared to the 60% probability the day before.
The United States began conducting search and rescue operations after what appeared to be an F-15 jet was shot down over Iran CNN. Citing unnamed sources, the outlet reported that the pilot was rescued while the status of the second crew member remained unclear.
The US-Israeli war with Iran began 35 days ago, and the deployment of US forces on the ground would represent a major escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which has put great pressure on the global economy and caused the worst oil supply disruption in decades.
Meanwhile, US Senator Roger Marshall has become the latest lawmakers to express concerns about the human costs associated with the entry of US forces into Iran. The United States has so far confirmed the killing of 15 American soldiers since the start of the conflict.
“As far as boots on the ground, I certainly hope not,” Marshall said. Topeka Capital JournalPointing out that his son is currently serving in the military. “I hope that this war will end very quickly and with minimal casualties among the Americans.”
Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump insisted that Operation Epic Fury is nearing its end, and that “essential strategic objectives (are) nearing completion.”
Trump claimed that regime change in Iran has already happened, but countless traders see things differently. they anticipation There is a 75% chance on Friday that the current ruling regime in Iran will remain in place by October, about 180 days from now.
Following the assassination of top Iranian leaders, the hardline government has been strengthened The Washington Post. The newspaper reported, citing regional and Western officials, that this group offers little hope of achieving a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East.
In a Social Truth post on Friday, Pres He confirmed And that “with more time” the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil flows pass, could easily be reopened. He raised the prospect of physically seizing the oil and making a “fortune.”
West Texas Intermediate crude futures on Thursday rose 0.47% to $112.07 a barrel, approaching a four-year high, according to Trading economics. On Friday, countless traders pencil case in There is an 83% chance that prices will rise to $120 before falling to $55.
Brent crude, the international standard, has also become more expensive. Although Brent crude futures for June delivery traded around $109 on Thursday, the spot price of the commodity rose to its highest level since 2008 at $141 per barrel. CNBCwhich cited S&P Global data.
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