Is this the last dive? Bitcoin’s decisive indicator indicates the final capitulation phase

Bitcoin’s latest SMA crossover reflects the previous cycle lows, meaning a potential final decline could occur within days.

Ongoing resistance kept Bitcoin trading within the $66,000-$68,000 range. As sentiment remains fragile, the technical signal seen in 2014, 2018 and 2022 has reappeared.

However, this could be a great accumulation opportunity for long-term investors.

“Golden opportunity”

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez It has been identified A recurring technical signal associated with Bitcoin’s historical cycle bottoms, centered around the crossover between the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages on the 3-day chart. This crossover has consistently appeared near the final leg of bear markets since 2014, triggering the last major capitulation before a new bull cycle begins.

During the 2014 cycle, Bitcoin actually fell 72% from its peak when the cross formed in December, followed by another 52% drop within 23 days that marked the final bottom. Also in 2018, this pattern was repeated after a 67% decline, with the crossover appearing in November, and a final 50% decline occurring 33 days later.

The 2022 cycle also showed a similar structure, with a 50% decline preceding the crossover in May and a further 45% decline within 33 days, though a secondary lower low was formed 156 days later, completing the broader bear market structure. In the current cycle, after the October 2025 peak, Bitcoin has already recorded a 52% correction, and an SMA crossover appeared on February 27, 2026.

As of now, it has been approximately 30 days since this signal appeared, which places the market within the historical window where previous sessions saw their final phase. Martinez noted that if historical patterns continue to hold, Bitcoin could enter what he described as a “final accumulation window” within days.

Based on previous post-crossover declines of between 40% and 50%, he identifies potential accumulation areas around $40,000, representing a more moderate reset, and a deeper $30,000 depletion scenario. While the signal does not guarantee further decline, in previous cases, it has coincided with the last significant downward movement before forming a long-term macro bottom and moving into a new bull market phase.

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Bear market goals

Extending the bearish outlook, on-chain analyst Willie Wu estimated That Bitcoin could reach between $46,000 and $54,000 based on old valuation models. The CVDD level, currently near $45,500, continues to rise and acts as a support benchmark. It also found that capital flow into Bitcoin has declined since November amid weak demand. These models are based on a small number of previous bear markets that occurred under favorable macro conditions. As such, a weaker global backdrop could push cryptocurrency assets below these expected levels.

A deeper bearish range was predicted by Dr. Proffitt, who placed the potential bottom between $35,000 and $45,000. He stated that the market has not yet reached its lowest levels. A short-term upside towards the $79,000 to $84,000 range remains possible. However, such moves are viewed as temporary and more suitable for short positioning.