Tldr:
- Pakistan handed over Washington’s 15-point peace plan to Iran on the same day Chinese warships docked in Karachi.
- The port of Gwadar, which China operates under a 40-year lease, is located 400 kilometers from Hormuz and completely bypasses the closed strait.
- Traffic in Hormuz collapsed by more than 90 percent, as Iran collected yuan tolls and drafted laws to make them permanent.
- Pakistan owes China more than $30 billion, imports 81% of its weapons from Beijing, while enjoying the status of an ally of the United States.
Pakistan finds itself at the center of a growing geopolitical conundrum as the Strait of Hormuz crisis worsens. The country plays an active mediating role between the United States and Iran while at the same time hosting China’s most strategic sea lane.
Analysts are now watching Islamabad closely. Pakistan It enjoys the status of a major non-NATO ally with Washington, owes more than $30 billion to Beijing, and operates a port that becomes more valuable the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Pakistan’s dual role in the Hormuz crisis
Traffic through Strait of Hormuz It has collapsed by more than 90 percent. Iran currently collects yuan-denominated fees from China-linked ships that pass through the strait. Bloomberg reported that the Iranian parliament is drafting legislation to make these fees permanent.
On March 25, Pakistan handed over the US 15-point peace plan to Tehran. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed this at a Cabinet meeting, describing the mediation channel as “strong and positive.” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also offered to host direct talks between the two parties.
On the same day, the People’s Liberation Army Navy ship Daqing docked in Karachi. The ship is participating in Sea Guardian IV, a joint naval exercise with Pakistan that continues until April 2. These exercises are taking place in the Arabian Sea, the same waters in which Gwadar Port operates.
Shanaka analyst Anselm Pereira noted the timing on social media: “Pakistan is the only country on Earth that benefits from both outcomes of this war.” This observation has since spread widely among geopolitical observers.
Pakistan receives 81 percent of its weapons from China, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. This dependence, coupled with its US alliance and active mediation role, places Islamabad in a unique structural position during this crisis.
Gwadar Port and the bypass corridor of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
Gwadar Port is located about 400 kilometers from the Strait of Hormuz on the coast of Balochistan. China Overseas Port Holdings operates it under a 40-year lease. It serves as the southwestern leg of the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor connects the Arabian Sea directly to China’s Xinjiang region via 3,000 kilometers of roads, railways and pipelines.
According to planning documents for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, this route reduces the distance of China’s energy imports in the Middle East from 12,000 kilometers by sea to nearly 2,500 kilometers by land.
Every barrel of oil that cannot pass through Hormuz strengthens the economic case for routing energy through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor instead. A permanent Iranian toll regime in the Strait would further accelerate Chinese investment in this land-based alternative.
The fifth condition for the ceasefire currently imposed by Iran requires permanent sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. If any version of this requirement is accepted, the yuan toll system could gain international legitimacy. China is the biggest beneficiary of this result.
Sea Guardian exercises end on April 2 Trump administration The diplomatic deadline falls on April 6. This four-day gap separates the end of Chinese military exercises in Pakistani waters from the moment when the largest US military buildup since 2003 begins work or withdraws. Pakistan’s position between these two timelines is not a coincidence.
