Fundstrat’s Tom Lee believes historical precedent suggests April could be a strong month for stocks.
In a new interview with CNBC, Lee estimated that 90-95% of Iran’s war-related selling in the market is already in the past.
“Going into March, it looked like the war was not going to be a short war, but a longer war, and I think the markets were adjusting to that. But we’re still in the fog of war, because we don’t know when it’s going to end, but we look at the events of the past seven major wars, and the stock market is adjusting very quickly.
In the first 10% of the entire duration of the war, the stock market usually bottoms out.
Lee points to World War II as a major historical reference.
So World War II took almost five years, and the market bottomed out five months after that war. So I think as bad as March was, we’ve probably seen a significant portion of that adjustment. Now I think the risk/reward is very good for stocks.
The market strategist still envisions the S&P 500 hitting 7,700 by the end of the year despite a rocky start to 2026.
The benchmark is at 6,604.85 at the time of writing and is up 3.15% in the past five days but down 3.82% year-to-date.
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