The USD/JPY rally resumed from 152.25 by breaking the 159.88 resistance level last week. Initial bias remains on the upside and further upside should be seen to retest the 161.94 high next. On the downside, minor support at 159.35 will shift the intraday bias to neutral first. But the near-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the support at 157.49 holds, in case of a pullback.
In the bigger picture, the outlook is unchanged as the corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should be completed in three waves at 139.87. The larger uptrend from 102.58 (2021 low) may be ready to resume via 161.94. This will remain the preferred case as long as the 55 EMA (now at 152.97) remains intact. A strong break of 161.94 will pave the way for a 61.8% forecast of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.
In the longer term picture, the uptrend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and may be ready to resume. A strong break at 161.94 would target a 61.8% forecast of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. The long-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the support at 139.87 holds, even in the event of a deep pullback.
