The price of XRP has rebounded approximately 3% from its March 27 low of $1.31, and has reclaimed the $1.35 area. However, this move may be a bearish signal rather than the start of a sustainable recovery, and broader market conditions are not helping.
Since peaking at $1.60 on March 17, XRP has already corrected 18%. The intraday bounce looks constructive on the surface, but the chart, derivatives and on-chain data all point in the same direction.
A bearish flag is forming as the hidden bearish divergence increases
The 12-hour chart is shown Trading Ripple (XRP). Inside the bear flag pattern. The pole formed during the 18% decline from $1.60 to $1.31 between March 17-27. The current 3% retracement forms part of a flag, an upward channel that usually resolves with another leg down proportional to the size of the bar.
If the flag’s lower trend line breaks, a similar move could be stimulated at 18% from the breakout point. This would take the price of XRP towards the $1.08 region (highlighted later in the prices section).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, adds another layer of concern. Between February 6 and March 28, on the 12-hour chart, the price forms a lower high while the RSI forms a higher high.
This is a hidden bearish divergence, which usually indicates a continuation of the current downtrend rather than a reversal.
Want more symbolic insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s daily newsletterhere.
The difference has not yet been confirmed. Confirmation requires that the next 12-hour candle close below $1.35. If the price crosses $1.35 and stays above it, the structure is lagging.
The complete invalidation occurs above the $1.60 level, which is the peak of the pole. If the broader market continues to weaken, this setup may quickly be confirmed.
However, even without the RSI, derivatives and spot data suggest that the bounce is on weak ground.
Open interest rises, but holders reduce positions
Since the rebound began, XRP’s open interest has risen from $737.72 million to $759.21 million, an increase of 2.9%. At the same time, the funding rate became less negative, moving from -0.011% to -0.003%. This combination means that more long positions are opened during the bounce.
A rise in open interest during a bounce inside a bear flag is usually a warning rather than a bullish confirmation. This means that some leveraged traders are betting that the bounce will continue, but if the pattern breaks down, these new long trades become fuel for liquidation.
The spot market offers no equilibrium. Hodler’s net position change, a metric accumulation tracked by Glassnode by long-term wallets (155 days or more), remained steady between March 19 and 25 at around 238 million XRP.
Since March 25, this balance has decreased to 229.78 million XRP, a decrease of about 8.25 million tokens or 3.47%.
Conviction holders quietly reduce exposure before XRP price bounces. When derivatives tend to go long, and spot holders pull back, the situation favors bears.
If the hidden bearish divergence led by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is confirmed and the price corrects, the immediate support required to absorb the sell-off simply is not there. It remains to be seen whether spot buyers will come in too, as recent longs have done. If that happens, some immediate support could help stop the potential decline.
XRP price forecast and test of $1.35
XRP price needs a clean 12-hour close above $1.35 to delay a bearish setup. Above that, $1.37 and $1.40 become the next resistance levels. However, based on the bearish flag structure and divergence formation, any move below $1.35 will initiate the confirmation process.
If the flag breaks and gives way to the $1.31-1.32 neckline area, a measured move of approximately 18% activates from the breakout point. This targets the $1.08 area, which would then represent the lowest level for XRP since early February 2026.
On the upside, a move above just $1.60 would invalidate the entire bearish structure End the lower-high sequence that set the trading rules for XRP for 2026.
Right now, a $1.35 retracement separates a late bearish setup from an 18% breakdown towards $1.08.
this post XRP could face an 18% collapse, as Hidden Bear Flag pattern shows appeared first on BeInCrypto.
