Opportunities for Clarity Act – A proposed US federal regulation aimed at legalizing it encryption Assets – Signing into law before the end of 2026 fell to a multi-month low on Polymarket as of April 23.
Polymarket traders lowered their odds of passage of the Clarity Act of 2026 by 21 points in five days, from 64% on April 18 to 43% at press time. In the past 24 hours, the odds that the digital asset market structure bill will be passed by the end of this year have fallen by 22%, marking a sharp collapse in expectations of Polymarket traders. Expectations.
The last time the odds for this decade fell to these levels was in the week of January 19, 2026. During this period, the probability of a 2026 Act of Clarity bottomed out at 40% before rising in subsequent weeks to a peak of 82% by February 20. Since then, the probability has hovered around 60%, Feinbold said. AnalyzedBefore he gave up this week.
Why did Polymarket traders downplay the chances of the Clarity Act passing in 2026?
The main reason Polymarket traders are less optimistic about the passage of the Clarity Act this year is the recent delay in tokenization scheduled in the Senate. Earlier this week, Thom Tillis, the Republican senator from North Carolina who is leading the settlement between banks and cryptocurrency companies, said he does not expect the rate hike on this bill to occur in April as scheduled.
As such, Tillis stated that the Senate committee could take up the reading in mid-May, which is consistent with A prediction From Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple Labs. He added that the delay will further harmonize the controversial issues in the bill, especially regarding stablecoin returns.
“It’s very important to me not to rush things, to listen to everyone, and to give them a rational basis for what we accept,” Tillis said. male.
With the August Senate recess approaching, Polymarket traders now see fewer chances that the Clarity Act will advance to President Donald Trump’s desk before December 31.
