TThe events of the past week surrounding the situation in Hormuz showed a clear disconnect between what was said and the harsh reality. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Exclusive said, “Although Iran and the United States have formally agreed to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, the reality on the water tells a different story. Iranian forces have re-imposed tight control over transit, while an ongoing US naval blockade continues to intercept and deter ships, with ships being turned back or even seized during attempted passages. The result is a clear disconnect between political statements and operational reality: instead of an effective passage, the strait remains effectively restricted, with both sides taking action.” Reinforcing the de facto lockdown despite the official narrative of reopening.
Source: Exclusive
What is particularly notable in the current environment is that, in contrast to the volatility of energy markets, the dry bulk sector is showing a radically different dynamic – driven less by geopolitics and more by the elasticity of underlying demand. The Baltic Dry Index’s rise to 2,484 points, recording nine consecutive daily gains and the highest level since December 2025, reflects more than just a cyclical recovery. It signals tightening conditions, especially in the Capesize sector, where strong Brazilian iron ore exports and strong Chinese demand combine with limited ship availability to push prices higher. At the same time, simultaneous strengthening across all major indices adds to the depth of this recovery, with the BDI reaching its highest level since 12/8/2025 (2694 points), the BCI since 12/10/2025 (4284 points), and the BSI since 12/09/2025 (1419 points), highlighting broad-based tightening across ship classes rather than isolated sector-based tightening.”
According to Xclusiv, “China once again sits at the center of this recovery narrative. The 11% annual increase in iron ore imports is reflected in total volumes rising from 345 million tonnes to 353.5 million tonnes, up +2.5%, further strengthening its already dominant position and raising its share of global imports from 73.7% to 74.4%. On the supply side, Australia continues to lead, with exports increasing from 258 million tonnes in 2025 to 267 million tons in 2026, an increase of 3.5%, with its global share moving from 55.2% to 56.3%, followed by Brazil with a more modest increase from 98 million to 98.4 million tons, maintaining its 21% share. Overall, however, coal trade flows reveal a more mixed picture, with Indonesia, the largest exporter, seeing a sharp decline in volumes. From 143 million tons to 132.8 million tons, a decrease of -7.1%, reducing its global share from 37.2% to 34.6%. In contrast, Australia increased its exports from 90 million to 94.7 million tons, an increase of 5.2%, raising its share from 23.4% to 24.7%. On the demand side, China significantly reduced its imports from 103 million tons to 88.3 million tons, a contraction of -14.3%, reducing its share from 26.7% to 23%. India also recorded a decline from 74 million tons to 69.7 million tons (-5.8%), while Japan moved in the opposite direction, increasing imports from 42.4 million to 45.7 million tons (+7.8%), indicating stronger demand resilience in non-Chinese demand pockets.”
Source: Exclusive
“Overall, the market appears to be moving into a more structurally driven phase. The easing, but not disappearance, of geopolitical risks provides some near-term visibility, however it is the steady and differentiated growth in commodity flows, combined with tightening fleet dynamics, that is shaping an increasingly more resilient and fundamentally supportive outlook for the dry bulk sector.”
Nikos Rousanoglou, Global Hellenic Shipping News
