TThe US-Iranian deal should allow container shipping to return to the Strait of Hormuz, but the scale of the disruption caused by the blockade means that, even in the best-case scenario, maritime supply chain networks will recover in mid-September 2026 and spot prices will rise for at least another four weeks before the market peaks.
“This agreement should be welcomed with realism and extreme caution,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta – the sea and air freight information platform.
“Even if the ceasefire holds, about 10% of global container shipping capacity is affected by the blockade and freight rates across key trades are rising. This scale of disruption and market volatility cannot be reversed overnight.”
The magnitude of the disturbance
Before the crisis, 99 container services operated in or transited the Arabian Gulf, deploying a combined nominal capacity of 3.2 million TEUs – around 10% of the global container fleet. Only 11 services remain active due to the blockade – 10 of which operate in the Persian Gulf region and one dedicated service between Iran and China – representing just 74,000 TEU of active capacity in the region.
488 ships were deployed on these 99 services before the conflict escalated at the end of February; There are still only 18 ships on the Arabian Gulf routes today, with 470 ships diverted or displaced across the global network.
The ripple effects of this disruption in spot prices are being felt across all major trade lanes – even those that do not normally cross the Strait of Hormuz, such as across the Pacific to the US West Coast.
In the past week alone, prices have jumped +29% from the Far East to the US West Coast and +25% from the Far East to the US East Coast.
“Shippers are loading imports early ahead of the July bunker surcharge hike and concerns about available capacity, with many vessels being told they are full on trades outside Asia for weeks in advance. Shippers who are able to put their boxes on board are paying a premium to do so,” Sand said.
Fuel surcharge pressure should ease soon, as marine fuel and oil prices in general have fallen by about 20% in the past 10 days.
Prices have not yet reached the peak
The US-Iranian agreement does not open the strait immediately. Articles Four and Five of the MOU address the US naval blockade and Iran’s obligations not to disrupt traffic, but the agreement sets a thirty-day deadline for mine clearance operations – and may take much longer. Until these operations are completed, safe and large-scale transit cannot be resumed through normal ship separation plans.
“Spot prices will continue to rise as long as the Strait of Hormuz is not fully open,” Sand said. “This could take another four weeks or more depending on the complexity of the mine clearance. Shipping companies should plan for a peak around the point when the strait officially reopens, followed by a gradual easing.”
Recovery has three stages
Zenitta expects recovery in three stages.
Phase Zero represents the urgent priority for retrieving ships and their crews that have been stuck inside the Arabian Gulf for nearly four months. For example, the CMA CGM DIAMOND (3,700 TEU) entered the Gulf on February 17 and has been trapped ever since, making one failed attempt to exit the strait on April 18.
The first phase covers the return of feeder and regional services to the ports of the Arabian Gulf. These smaller services carry less risk if they are disrupted, and will form the basis for revitalizing intra-regional trade in the region. With feeder connectivity restored, inter-service services in the Arabian Gulf – which fell from 21 before the crisis to 10 today – could begin to expand again.
The second phase will be the return of key long-haul services in trade between Asia and Europe and Asia and North America. These involve the highest volume and greatest risks to the supply chain if there is a sudden deterioration in the security situation.
“Carriers had to act quickly when the conflict escalated and the Strait of Hormuz was closed in February, but the return will be more cautious,” Sand said. “A sudden deterioration in the security situation will have a severe network-wide impact if it causes the main transport chain between Asia and Europe or Asia and North America to fail, so carriers will start with smaller, less risky feeder services.”
The next normal may look different
Even after a full recovery, the establishment of container shipping service in the Middle East will not be a carbon copy of what existed before February 28. Zenita expects telcos to build more flexibility into networks – favoring a higher proportion of regional feeder services compared to major east-west forward calls.
“The geopolitical situation will remain fragile for the foreseeable future, and both carriers and shippers will want to protect against the disruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz the first time,” Sand said. “The increased use of shipping services to the Gulf creates additional transit time, but insulates the long-haul network from any future disruption.”
Source: Zenita
