On June 8, technical analyst ChartNerd shared details of the XRP cycle, explaining that the current bear market was shallower and perhaps shorter than previous ones.
Additionally, he said that there is a chance that the bottom of the cycle will be reached before the end of 2026 which could allow the Ripple token to eventually reach $27.
What the historical comparison shows
According to ChartNerd’s analysis, previous XRP bear markets were typically bearish I continue Between 400 and 790 days, with withdrawals ranging between 85% and 90% of peak levels. The current correction, as of this post, has lasted approximately 350 days and marks a decline of approximately 70% from the July 2025 all-time high of $3.65.
The analyst said that both numbers are more moderate than any similar historical cycle, and he believed that this pattern of reducing risk has meaning in itself.
“The area of a historic bottom between now and the end of the year is rapidly approaching,” ChartNerd wrote. “These prices are where we need to start paying attention to the fact that although the chances of immediate expansion may be low, the bottom of the cycle may very well be on the horizon.”
However, he did not rule out further declines for XRP. The overall reading suggests that more pain may still be needed in the coming months to form an actual cycle bottom, which will then be followed by an accumulation phase, then a move towards Fibonacci extension targets of $8, $13 and $27.
The on-chain technician has pointed to the 2014 bear market as an exception to this pattern. That cycle saw a 96% drop over roughly 210 days to bottom, but then it took more than 1,200 days for XRP to surpass its previous high, with a significant bottom appearing in late 2017 before the peak in January 2018.
Where does XRP stand in the broader picture?
At the time of writing, the price of XRP is at approximately $1.15, down about 12% from where it was a week ago and 19% lower than where it was one month ago. Over the past week, the Ripple token has seen it fall to a 19-month low of $1.05. However, after reaching this price, it… He rallied To $1.20 before falling slightly from there.
However, there was a bright spark in that period, namely XRP exchange-traded funds. This money closed last week with a net inflow of $2.62 million. This may seem like a very small number, but it is notable considering that Bitcoin peers bled over $1.7 billion in that period, and Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of $173 million.
Only HYPE ETFs saw a better performance, bringing in nearly $17 million, while funds tracking Litecoin (LTC), Avalanche (AVAX), and Hedera (HBAR) saw no movement.
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