AUD/USD fell to 0.6864 last week but has since recovered. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidation first. Further decline is expected as long as 0.6977 support turns into resistance. Below 0.6864 support will target 0.6832. A strong breakout there will target the 0.6756 Fibonacci level. However, a sustained break of 0.6977 will bring a stronger bounce to the resistance at 0.7087 instead.
In the bigger picture, considering the bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top could be formed at 0.7277 after failing to sustain retracement levels above 61.8% from 0.8006 (2021 high) to 0.5913 (2024 high) at 0.7206. A deeper decline to the 38.2% retracement levels from 0.5913 to 0.7277 can be seen at 0.6756 as a correction. But strong support should be seen there for recovery. Consolidation will continue below 0.7277 for a while.
In the long-term picture, the rise from 0.5913 is the third leg of the entire pattern from 0.5506 (2020 low). It is still too early to judge whether this is an impulsive or corrective pattern. But either way, we should see further rise back to 0.8006 and possibly higher. This will remain the preferred case as long as the 55W EMA remains (now at 0.6828).
