Bitcoin’s price rose to a two-week high on Monday, as a U.S.-Iran ceasefire removed one of the market’s most persistent macro buildups, sending cryptocurrency-related stocks higher ahead of what traders see as this week’s real test: Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh. Firstly Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Bitcoin price Traded Nearly $67,000, an increase of 4% within 24 hours, after Iran confirmed the memorandum of understanding Re-opening Strait of Hormuz. The price broke the $64,000 resistance level due to thin liquidity at the weekend before settling at the New York open on Monday.
But Nansen Research analyst Nikolai Sondergaard urges caution about reading too much into the main movement.
“News of the ceasefire pushed Bitcoin to $66,000 on thin liquidity over the weekend, but traders who have been burned twice already this year have yet to fully redeploy.” Bitcoin Magazine. “The April deal collapsed, and US strikes broke a second truce on June 9, with Bitcoin backing out of the entire relief movement both times. The market treats June 19 in Switzerland as the real timestamp, not Sunday’s headlines.”
The strategy buys back
Strategy (MSTR) It has been detected Monday’s new 8-K shows that it acquired 1,587 BTC for roughly $100 million between June 8 and June 14, funded by a market share offering program, bringing total holdings to 846,842 BTC.
Shares rose more than 9% on the news, bringing intraday trading volume to 16.84 million shares.
Strive (ASST), the bitcoin treasury company headed by Vivek Ramaswamy, rose nearly 16% to $17.50 — continuing its recovery from a three-month low of $9.00 in early April. Other stocks such as Coinbase, Robinhood and Circle jumped more than 5%.
The rise in cryptocurrency stocks reflects something Austin Videra, co-founder of DoubleZero, has observed in action.
“Institutions love cryptocurrencies,” Videra said. “I’ve never seen more excitement from bankers and suits. You wouldn’t know a bear market is talking to them.”
Discussing Bitcoin’s price structure
Despite the green screens, analysts at Bitfinex see a risk in confusing relief with demand. “What the tape shows is seller fatigue arriving at the same moment that the macroeconomic delay is taking place, a different condition from real demand,” the company’s analyst team wrote. Bitcoin Magazine. “The price action following each behaves very differently, leading us to believe that despite the short-term recovery, the bulls face significant hurdles before an uptrend can form.”
Bitfinex outlined the conditions for a perpetual supply: “We believe we have a temporary bottom with multiple confluences such as correlated assets drifting higher, significant liquidation causing funding, open interest reset and spot seller exhaustion with macro holding off for now. However, major spot buyer aggregators in ETFs and treasury/DAT companies need to turn positive for BTC to get a sustainable spot supply.”
ETF data provides mixed signals. Bitcoin ETFs registered Five straight weeks of net outflows totaling nearly $1.8 billion before June 12 broke the streak with $85.85 million in net inflows, led by BlackRock’s IBIT of $57.69 million and Fidelity’s FBTC.
One positive session does not confirm a Bitcoin price reversal, but it is the first sign that institutional buyers may start to re-engage.
The Fed is the next catalyst
The geopolitical relief trade is real, but both Sondergaard and Bitfinex point to the FOMC as the defining variable for the market this week. June 16-17 is Kevin Warsh Day First meeting as Fed Chairman. Inflation hit 3.8% in April, interest rate cuts are no longer up for discussion, and some officials are starting to raise the possibility of raising interest rates later in the year.
The Fed is widely expected to remain at 3.50% to 3.75%, but the updated dot chart and Warsch’s first press conference will indicate which direction the committee and, as a result, the price of Bitcoin are headed.
Bitfinex framed the Iran deal as a transmission mechanism, not a standalone catalyst: “If the truce holds, oil declines, the energy-led component of inflation fades, real yields decline and equalize inflation, and the dollar’s safe-haven bid declines. This same series is the clearest near-term tailwind for gold and Bitcoin.”
But the company pointed to timing as the key variable: “The agreement is reached the day before the FOMC meeting, the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh. Reliable supply normalization gives the committee cover to treat May’s rally as temporary and wait-and-see, rather than tightening in an above-target headline.”
For crypto bulls, a bullish case requires a ceasefire to hold, a bullish case to provide a neutral to bearish signal, and ETF flows to string consecutive positive sessions together. None of these results can be guaranteed.
This is precisely why Bitcoin price remains, in the words of Bitfinex, “confined in the consolidation zone between these two critical levels, where it must either establish a permanent support base or face a possible collapse into a deeper decline.”
