Bitcoin has lost more than half its value since its peak in October 2025, drifting to nearly $63,000 at press time. At present, it has largely maintained a narrow range between $58,000 and $63,000.
This decline stems mostly from escalating geopolitical tensions that arose after the peak – the US-China tariff war and an unresolved conflict in West Asia – which pulled capital from outside the country. Bitcoin.
Sentiment has since stabilized on the geopolitical front, but moves by major shareholders cast doubt on whether a sustained rally is coming. Michael Saylor’s strategy recently sold $216 million worth of Bitcoin to fund a dividendwhich increases uncertainty. On-chain data provides a clearer answer.
Clear demand for Bitcoin indicates quiet accumulation
Despite the outflows, clear demand for Bitcoin on a 30-day basis indicates a muted and growing accumulation of the asset.
Since June 3, buyers have acquired nearly 200,000 BTC, raising apparent demand from -275,000 to -75,000 BTC. The metric measures the gap between newly issued Bitcoin and the supply that has remained inactive.
The rise reflects a degree of accumulation, although it stops short of confirming a bull market.
The apparent demand is still located in the negative zone on the chart. A material move seems unlikely until the gauge turns positive, especially when the upward push toward the positive end remains weak. Right now, the trend calls for caution rather than a bullish reading, and the market has yet to confirm otherwise.
The structure suggests a limited downside
Structurally, the cryptocurrency king is showing signs that further decline from this level holds less probability.
Bitcoin found a base at the lower band (green line) of the Bollinger Bands indicator, a level that often played a crucial supporting role once the price traded there for an extended period.
The Bollinger Bands indicator repeatedly marks retracement points on the chart. Each of the last five cases, circled in red, typically carries the price to the blue line or upper red line – levels that currently sit at $69,928 and $82,544.
On the other hand, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator indicates that the rally may not come soon, with Bitcoin possibly falling slightly or consolidating further within its current range.
The blue MACD line crossing the orange line – while maintaining a narrow gap – indicates Bitcoin continuing to trade in the direction it is currently located, between $58,000 and $63,000, before any rally occurs. It also indicates that the chances of a sharp decline remain slim.
Bitcoin season indicator and exchange reserves remain calm
The market has yet to enter Bitcoin season, the euphoric stretch where the asset posts new local highs and potentially tests an all-time high.
The index tracking this currently reads 52, lending modest support to the view that select altcoins are attracting renewed capital inflow.
Bitcoin is likely to face lighter selling pressure in its current state, given the overall decline in supply held on exchange reserves. This availability has decreased from 2.715 million BTC to approximately 2.707 million on the chart.
For now, capital movement indicates stable sentiment, and it appears that Bitcoin will remain calm as the gradual decline trend holds.
Final summary
- Bitcoin remains range bound, with on-chain data pointing to accumulation but not a confirmed bullish reversal.
- Clear demand is improving as buyers accumulate Bitcoin, although the gauge remains negative, warranting caution.
