BTC has moved out of the accumulation phase that led to its rally earlier this year and has entered a distribution system driven by ETF inflows and macroeconomic conditions.
The bullish momentum of the Bitcoin market has exhausted itself, and Bitcoin has now entered the distribution phase. This can be seen in investors selling increasingly aggressively rather than increasing their exposure.
According to this week’s Bitfinex Alpha report, both flow data and on-chain dynamics Pointing BTC has moved out of the accumulation phase that led to its rally earlier this year. This signals the beginning of a period of intense selling pressure that could see BTC fall to levels last seen in early to mid-2024.
Bitcoin enters the distribution system
Bitcoin actually fell below $60,000 on June 5 amid a major rally Outflows From spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and persistent macroeconomic headwinds. Although the asset has rebounded in the past two days and has risen again above this level, analysts believe that the recovery may hide a more important shift beneath the surface, which is the move to the distribution system.
During last week’s decline, Bitcoin fell to a multi-year low of $59,200, a level last seen in October 2024. This price also represents a 53% decline from the October 2025 all-time high (ATH), a 28.5% decline from the levels recorded in mid-May, and a 20% decline from the monthly open in June. BTC was unable to maintain the $60,000 minimum, which has served as an anchor for the price since February.
As BTC retreats to its consolidation zone in Q1 2026, the asset faces two possible scenarios – the best being a range of movement between $60,000 and $72,000. On the other hand, the worst-case scenario is price discovery at levels not seen since the spot ETF market matured.
BTC is facing a worst-case scenario
Analysts He says The worst case scenario will happen if Bitcoin exceeds the $60,000 level for an extended period of time. Bitcoin’s current moves are already confined within the previous range lows, due to catalysts such as the strategy’s ETF and BTC outflows. sales.
Other factors contributing to Bitcoin’s current price trend are rising energy prices, stronger than expected labor market data, and tightening financial conditions from the Federal Reserve. However, the most important factor is the contraction in spot demand as seen in the sharp reversal in the delta of spot cumulative volume.
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“Delta’s cumulative spot volume has turned distinctly negative, touching depths reminiscent of the large liquidations we saw in February. The data confirms that strong allocation, especially by new buyers, is currently the dominant force on the exchange’s order books,” the analysts explained.
As with previous distribution phases, Bitcoin can only return to the accumulation system when sustained immediate demand returns.
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