TLDR
- Bitwise says that Bitcoin often reacts before stocks during liquidity shifts.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum hit cycle lows as the Nasdaq fell 5%.
- The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds held steady near 4.53% after strong labor data.
- Global M2 rose to $122.6 trillion despite crypto decline.
- The SSR fell to 13, indicating oversold liquidity conditions.
Bitcoin traded near $62,000 as Bitwise linked its pullback to tightening financial conditions. The asset manager said Bitcoin It is often the ‘canary in the aggregate coal mine’. He argued that the recent price action reflects a broader shift in risk aversion across global markets.
Bitcoin is ahead of stocks in repricing risks
Bitwise I mentioned The price of Bitcoin and Ether fell to $58,000 and $1,507 during the recent economic downturn. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq posted a daily decline of 5%, its biggest decline in months. South Korea’s Kospi also temporarily halted trading after heavy selling in semiconductor stocks.
The company said that Bitcoin typically reacts earlier than traditional markets because it trades around the clock. “BTC often acts as the canary in the overall coal mine,” Bitwise stated. She added that cryptocurrency prices quickly adapt to liquidity changes while stocks respond later.
Stronger US employment data Low expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. As a result, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds settled near 4.53% after reaching 4.68% last month. Expectations of higher interest rates for a longer period have put pressure on growth-sensitive assets in the markets.
Liquidity data shows the purchasing power of stablecoins
The chart comparing Bitcoin, Nasdaq and Global M2 shows mixed trends. Global M2 rose to approximately $122.6 trillion over the past year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has retreated sharply from its session high of $126,000.
Bitwise said the pattern suggests bitcoin may have repriced earlier than stocks. If liquidity conditions subsequently improve, the company sees scope for a renewed price response. He pointed out that global liquidity continues to expand despite the recent fluctuations.
Onchain metrics also highlight the capital available in cryptocurrency markets. Independent analyst Marton said that the stablecoin supply ratio (RSI) fell to 13, which is an oversold level. He explained that lower SSR readings indicate larger stablecoin balances compared to Bitcoin’s market capitalization.
The SSR compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to major stablecoins such as USDT and US dollars. Historically, similar readings have appeared near accumulation areas before stronger price periods. Exchange data supports this view with stablecoin reserves approaching $72 billion.
USDT accounts for $57.7 billion in exchange balances, while USDC holds approximately $12 billion. Although reserves have declined from a peak of more than $80 billion in late 2025, their levels remain high. Bitcoin is now trading near the lower end of its recent range with liquidity remaining on exchanges.
