Bitcoin has stabilized above $63,000 following a macroeconomic-driven rebound last week, but traders are now weighing expectations of a Fed rate cut against heightened geopolitical tensions and rising technical resistance.
summary
- Bitcoin holds above $63K as traders await Fed meeting minutes after a 10% macroeconomic-driven rebound.
- Technical indicators are showing strong support near $61K, but resistance remains firm around $64K-$65K.
- Rising oil prices and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz add new uncertainty to Bitcoin’s near-term outlook.
According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (Bitcoin) The price traded around $63,100 on Tuesday after briefly testing the $64,000 area again, leaving the market caught between a bullish overall outlook and a growing list of near-term risks.
The cryptocurrency has risen nearly 10% over the past week after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh suggested that productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence could help contain inflation, while… Weak US jobs report It showed just 57,000 new jobs on the payrolls, leading to a sharp increase in expectations for interest rate cuts. Lower borrowing costs usually improve liquidity conditions and push investors back towards riskier assets.
The recent gains also coincided with renewed demand for ETFs. US-based bitcoin ETFs posted two straight sessions of net inflows after weeks of sustained withdrawals, offering the first sign that institutional investors are cautiously returning to the market after recording a record net outflows of $4.5 billion in June.
Corporate treasury activity also increased volatility. The strategy revealed a loss of $8.32 billion in the second quarter linked to its Bitcoin holdings and Sold 3,588 BitcoinWhich led to a sharp decline towards the $61,000 area before buyers returned. The decline led to nearly $500 million of leveraged long positions being liquidated within 24 hours before prices recovered above $63,000.
Bitcoin is facing heavy resistance as derivatives traders wait for the next catalyst
The daily chart shows that Bitcoin is rebounding strongly from the $58,000 area but failing to reclaim the key horizontal resistance near $65,000. The price remains below the 50-day moving average near $65,800, while the 200-day moving average continues to cap the longer-term trend.
However, Chaikin’s fund flow has once again risen above zero, indicating that new capital is starting to return after weeks of continuous selling. The MACD indicator also remains in bullish territory, although bullish momentum slows as the price approaches resistance.
The 4-hour chart shows a more cautious picture. Bitcoin continues to trade above the 20, 50 and 100 period moving averages, which are currently converging between approximately $61,500 and $63,000 and providing layered support. Meanwhile, the RSI has formed a bearish divergence, with the price making higher highs while the RSI is making lower highs, and this often serves as an early warning that buying momentum is weakening.
Comment About the setup, analyst Daan Crypto Trades wrote:
“BTC is testing the $64K resistance area again, still trading below the 50 EMA at $65.8K. Minutes from the FOMC meeting will drop tomorrow which could easily be a catalyst for a breakout from this price range.”
He added that a close above $64,000 could reopen the way towards the 50-day moving average, while around $60,700 remains the key support level that bulls should defend.
Derivatives positioning also shows that traders are congregating around nearby liquidation levels. CoinGlass’ 24-hour liquidation heat map reveals heavy short liquidation rallies between $64,500 and $66,000, suggesting a decisive breakout could trigger another squeeze.
On the downside, there is a significant concentration of long liquidation around the $61,000-$61,500 area, increasing the potential for an accelerated sell-off if support breaks.
Oil prices, Fed minutes, and geopolitical risks could determine Bitcoin’s next move
Overall risks remain elevated despite rising expectations for Fed easing. The price of crude oil rose above $69 per barrel after Qatar’s state-owned liquefied natural gas tanker was hit by a projectile near the Omani coast as it exited the Strait of Hormuz, renewing concerns about shipping security and the durability of the US-Iranian understanding in the region. A continued rise in energy prices could complicate the Fed’s inflation forecasts if geopolitical tensions intensify.
Additional volatility may arrive with the release of FOMC meeting minutes, which traders expect will provide new guidance on the timing of future interest rate cuts. According to analyst Ted Bellows, Bitcoin has already formed a “bearish divergence on the four-hour time frame,” adding that “this looks bad in the short term.”
Failure to reclaim $64,000 could leave Bitcoin vulnerable to another test of the $60,700-$61,000 support area. A break below that area would expose the recent rebound to deeper profit taking, while a decisive move above $65,000 could target the large pool of liquidity extending towards $66,000 and possibly revive the short squeeze that fueled last week’s rally.
Disclosure: This article does not constitute investment advice. The content and materials contained on this page are for educational purposes only.
