The latest Bitcoin price action has been played to a technical wall, Cryptocurrency analyst Merlijn The Trader believes that the rejection could become more serious if one of the nearby support levels fails. In particular, technical analysis shows that price action looks uncomfortable Near crash under $76,000.
Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average has become the first major rejection zone
Bitcoin reached a high of $82,400 on May 6 before stalling at the 200-day moving average, falling as low as $74,000 over the recent weekend. Merlin Chart analysis This compares the current 2026 setup on the daily candlestick time frame with Bitcoin’s 2022 structure.
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Looking at the example of 2022, Bitcoin pushed to the 200-day moving average around $48,000 in early April, failed to hold that level, and then continued to decline until the price fell to a low of $28,000 in May. This move turned out to be a retreat of about 40% from the rejection zone.
The current chart shows a similar technical idea, although the price levels are different. Bitcoin recently tried to recover to $80,000 in mid-May, but the red 200-day moving average was acting as a ceiling. Rejection from that area The focus has been put on Short-term support is around $76,000, which Merlin has identified as the level to watch. If the price breaks $76,000, Bitcoin could play a price action similar to that of 2022.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @MerlijnTrader On
A loss of $76,000 could accelerate the decline below $67,000
According to analysts at K33 search, Bitcoin’s rejection at the 200-day moving average reflects patterns seen during previous market cycles in 2014, 2018, and 2022.The most important level that Bitcoin bulls should hold now is $76,000. A move below $76,000 would weaken the pattern as it would erase the higher-lower structure that formed after Bitcoin was pushed out of the mid-$70,000 range in May. “If you lose it, the movement accelerates,” the analyst said.
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If the $76,000 level is broken, Merlijn has a clear first downside target: the $67,000 CME gap. CME gaps form because Bitcoin is always traded continuously on cryptocurrency exchanges even on weekends, but CME futures stop during weekends and market close. A gap can appear on a chart when futures contracts reopen at a different price than their closing price, and most of the time, this gap always acts as a price magnet.
Right now, Bitcoin is trading at $77,233, which means Not confirmed bearish Follow Merlijn warns of it. However, as long as Bitcoin continues to trade below the 200-day moving average and continues to push against $76,000, it is likely to fall to the CME gap of $67,000. On the other hand, restoration A range of $79,000 to $80,000 this week would reduce the immediate risk of a crash to $67,000.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
