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- Bitcoin’s funding rate turned negative to -1.8%, its lowest level since 2023 – a historic bullish signal according to VanEck analysts.
- The analysis shows that the recovery of the hash rate after three recent declining episodes indicates favorable conditions ahead.
- Bitcoin price rose above $79,000 this week for the first time since January.
after Bitcoin It jumped to its highest price since January earlier this week, VanEck analysts reported Friday said They continue to see bullish on-chain signals around the leading cryptocurrency, with historically profitable conditions emerging across key metrics.
Bitcoin’s hash rate currently sits at a 30-day moving average of 985.5 exahashes/s, down 7.5% from the all-time high of 1,065.7 exahashes/s set in late November, according to a report by VanEck analysts Matthew Siegel and Patrick Bush. The network has weathered three episodes of sustained decline in just the past five months.
The last episode ended on April 15 after 16 days with a peak decline of 6.7%. These drawdowns have proven to be historically bullish, with six out of seven low hashrate episodes sending Bitcoin trading higher after 90 days, recording an average gain of 37.7%.
The analysis also highlights negative financing rates as a strong indicator. Bitcoin has averaged 11.5% returns over 30-day periods with negative funding since 2020, compared to overall returns of 4.5%. When funding fell below -5%, returns jumped to 19.4% on 30-day periods and 70% on 180-day periods.
Current conversion volume is $48.5 billion per day, which is in the 81st percentile but is down 5% month-on-month as positioning flow declines along with lower volatility.
Beyond on-chain metrics, products traded on the Bitcoin exchange have seen a significant reversal in sentiment. After five straight weeks of outflows totaling $4 billion from January 24 to February 21, Bitcoin exchange-traded products have turned net positive inflows in six of the past seven weeks through April 11. The shift indicates a recovery in institutional appetite for exposure to Bitcoin after the initial period of volatility following the launch.
The company has tracked similar patterns in previous market cycles, with a combination of retail rate drawdowns and negative financing rates preceding price spikes.
Bitcoin is down about 0.8% on the day as of this writing recently Trading at $77,397. The price of the leading cryptocurrency has emerged Above the $79,000 mark on Wednesday, with the coin rising more than 11% in the last 30 days according to CoinGecko data.
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