Bitcoin is on the rise – but without conviction. Despite a broader improvement in risk sentiment this week on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East, the crypto rally remains noticeably weak. While stocks, especially technology, are pulling back toward record highs, Bitcoin is still struggling well below the psychological level of $80,000, highlighting a clear lack of committed buying.
The difference with stocks is clear. With the Nasdaq about to retest its highs, Bitcoin’s inability to follow through suggests that the current move does not represent a complete endorsement of the risk. Instead, it points to a market that participates, but does not lead – and is hampered by a key factor that has not yet been resolved: Systems.
At the heart of this uncertainty is… The law of claritythe main cryptocurrency market structure bill in the United States. Although it passed in the House of Representatives last July, progress has stalled in the Senate Banking Committee. The lack of a defined margin and continued silence from the leadership suggest that the momentum behind the bill has faded.
The next two weeks mark a The crucial “do or die” window. With the Senate returning from recess, failure to introduce the bill before May may be possible Drive meaningful progress to 2030. Once the United States enters the campaign cycle ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, appetite for controversial legislation is expected to collapse.
Further tempered expectations is A shift in priorities within the Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott indicated that his immediate focus is confirming Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chairman in May. This effectively sidelines cryptocurrency legislation in the near term, reinforcing the perception that regulatory clarity is not forthcoming.
The policy bottleneck now acts as a ceiling for Bitcoin. The rally is intact, but the breakout is missing. Without progress on the Clarity Act, institutional participation is likely to remain cautious, limiting upward momentum.
Technically, The structure of Bitcoin reinforces this view. The price action from the low of 59,866 appears to be a consolidation phase within the broader downtrend of 126,289. As long as the support at 70,460 holds, further rise towards the 50% retracement from 97,922 to 59,866 at 78,894 is possible.
However, strong resistance is expected near 80492 – support turning into resistance – which is likely to cap gains. This level now represents more than just a technical barrier; It is actually a policy cap.
Unless regulatory clarity improves, rejection at 80K is likely to complete the consolidation and pave the way for a renewed downtrend, with a retest of the low at 59,866.
