Bitcoin tests $63K as long-term holders continue to sell at a loss

Bitcoin Gold is testing the $63,000 level, dragged down by a widespread pullback in risky assets and continued selling from long-term holders cashing out at a loss.

Bitcoin was trading at about $63,020 on Friday, down 1.7% on the day and 50% below the record level of $126,080 it hit in October, according to CoinGecko data.

The token failed to hold $65,000 on Wednesday and fell to an intraday low of $62,640. That fell below the “$64,500 sell wall” associated with this week’s options expiration — a large pool of open interest contracts that had served as “short-term support,” said Tim Sun, senior researcher at Hashkey. Decryption.

Macro compression

Son said risk appetite in broader markets had “slowed significantly”, with global stocks correcting and deleveraging in semiconductor and AI-related assets accelerating. He added that this pressure not only affects cryptocurrency sentiment, but also reduces institutional exposure to Bitcoin. However, the derivatives market shows “no crowding associated with leverage,” with selling concentrated in the spot market.

Daniela Hathorne, senior market analyst at Capital.com, read the decline in similar terms, calling it “a broader bout of risk aversion rather than a deterioration in crypto fundamentals.” Bitcoin has become “increasingly sensitive to the macro environment,” she said. DecryptionWith interest rate expectations, geopolitical uncertainty and changing sentiment driving short-term moves. She added that the price and flows below it are sending “somewhat mixed signals”, with overnight action looking negative, but the broader backdrop less bearish than the headline suggests.

Old coins hit the sell side

The most persistent pressure comes from long-time owners. Over 65% of coins flowing into exchanges are from long-term holders who suffer losses, According to Glassnode– a reading that she said matches previous bear market phases, when “that group dominated the sell side before it was eventually exhausted.” Until this quota is compressed, “structural selling pressure from buyers at the top of the cycle remains the dominant force in the exchange flow.”

The sun sees the same thing on the string. Investors who have held for a year or two are “gradually accepting losses and exiting,” he said, a wave that has limited the recovery, especially as Bitcoin’s rebound remains weak even after a period of decline. Encouraging US inflation report.

Demand for ETFs is not yet sufficient

The initial return to buying ETFs did not set a minimum price. After a $425 million outflow on Monday, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs took in $181 million on Tuesday and $108 million on Wednesday, according to Persian investorsSun said the “marginal recovery” was not enough to lift the market. The funds have attracted about $51 billion since their launch in 2024.

Hathorne reads this role more constructively. She said the return to inflows after a period of outflows indicates that “long-term investors are gradually returning to the market,” and is an early sign for her that institutional demand is recovering.

Both Sun and Glassnode signaled early signs that the sell-off may be coming to an end. “The liquidation intensity of long-term holders may be starting to peak,” as realized on-chain losses begin to decline, Sun said. Glassnode cited analyst CryptoVizart’s view that bear markets rarely find a “solid footing” until holders of one- to two-year bonds exhaust the sell-off.

Absent a “larger external shock,” the decline may be limited, Sun said, as weak selling pressure and uncongested leverage create a “volatile bottom” for Bitcoin. For now, the coins arriving on exchanges still come mostly from investors who bought near the top — and until that fades, Glassnode says, they remain the dominant force in the market.