Bitcoin has underperformed compared to other “risk” assets this year – and if history is anything to go by, its price could fall to $38,000 by October.
This is according to New a report By NYDIG, which reveals that the asset’s current stagnation is due to supply mechanics rather than risk sentiment.
In the past, the price of Bitcoin has moved with technology stocks, but 2026 was different: AI-related stocks rose while cryptocurrency markets fell. Bitcoin was recently priced at $64,809, down nearly 30% year to date and nearly 50% below its all-time high in October of $126,080.
“Bitcoin withdrawals in 2025-2026 bring the four-year cycle narrative back into focus, as the timing and structure increasingly resemble the previous reset years of 2014, 2018 and 2022 even though the path did not exactly match these withdrawals,” the report said.
NYDIG revealed that Bitcoin’s year-to-date performance makes it the worst-performing asset – losing out against US Treasuries, silver and currencies like the Swiss franc.
She added that if Bitcoin’s price action matches other pullbacks — such as the 2022 bear market — there could be a “potential cycle decline near $38,000-$39,000.”
The good news: Bitcoin had its least volatile year on record in 2025, and some analysts say the draw this year could be shallower than in previous bear markets.
Is Bitcoin digital gold?
NYDIG added that Bitcoin’s correlation with gold increased during the second quarter of 2026, as both assets witnessed a sell-off.
Bitcoin has been associated with the precious metal in the past, and Bitcoin users have best described the digital currency as “digital gold.”
But the asset last year was more closely tied to US stocks – especially technology stocks.
NYDIG added that other commodities saw a sell-off in the second quarter of 2026, with the so-called bear trade losing momentum. Traders in 2025 have talked about a “drip trade” as a hot move to hedge against the dollar — and other fiat currencies — losing value.
Bitwise He said In a report last week, while Bitcoin closed the second quarter of 2026 in its deepest and longest decline since the last bear market, fundamentals are poised for a rapid recovery, with regulators passing cryptocurrency-friendly legislation.
NYDIG added that the passage of market structure The law of clarity “It is the most important catalyst for the digital asset industry.”
“For Bitcoin, the direct price impact of CLARITY is less significant than for altcoins and crypto stocks, but the investment implications remain material because a clearer US market structure regime will benefit the entire industry.”
