China’s trade growth accelerated sharply in June, with exports rising 27.0% year-on-year in US dollars, compared with 19.4% in May and well above expectations of 18.2%. Imports also strengthened significantly, rising by 36.0% from 27.4% previously, beating expectations of 24.0%. The stronger-than-expected performance lifted the trade surplus to US$125.6 billion from US$105.4 billion, underscoring the resilience of external demand despite an increasingly unstable global environment.
The improvement was widespread across major trading partners. Exports to the United States rose by about 14%, indicating that bilateral trade remained resilient despite tariff headwinds. Shipments to Southeast Asia rose by about 35%, enhancing the region’s importance as the largest destination for China’s exports, while exports to the European Union increased by 18.5%. Technology was a notable driver, with integrated circuit exports doubling from the previous year to US$38 billion, highlighting the continued strength in global demand for semiconductors and AI-related supply chains.
The notable exception was energy. Crude oil imports fell -41% from a year earlier to 29.3 million tons, likely reflecting reduced purchasing following the temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East during most of the study period, as well as inventory management following early purchasing.
Economic data
| index | actual | expected | former |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports (annual) | 27.0% | 18.2% | 19.4% |
| Imports (annual) | 36.0% | 24.0% | 27.4% |
| Trade Balance (US Dollar) | 125.6B | 119.5 billion US dollars | 105.4 b |
Ready meals in the market
- Exports and imports significantly exceeded expectations, indicating stronger than expected trade momentum.
- Export growth has accelerated to its fastest pace since then October 2021supported by widespread demand across key trading partners.
- Technology remained the main driver, as exports of integrated circuits doubled to 38 billion US dollarshighlighting the continuing demand for artificial intelligence and semiconductors.
- Trade with the United States, ASEAN and the European Union strengthened, indicating resilience in external demand despite geopolitical and trade uncertainties.
- Crude oil imports fell sharply 41%This contrasts with broader import strength and reflects lower energy purchases during most of June.
- The strong trade report makes a positive contribution to China’s near-term growth outlook, although renewed tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices could change trade dynamics in the coming months.
