The U.S. Senate Banking Committee allowed April to close without scheduling the CLARITY Act markup, asserting that the bill missed its target window and pushed the entire legislative path into May with less than four work weeks before the Memorial Day holiday.
summary
- The Senate Banking Committee failed to schedule the CLARITY Act markup in April, officially missing its target window after the nomination of the Fed’s Kevin Warsh consumed the committee’s calendar.
- With Congress recessing for its Memorial Day recess on May 21, the bill now needs to complete Banking Committee markup, a 60-vote Senate vote, and three reconciliation steps in less than four weeks.
- Galaxy Research estimates the odds of success at 50-50 or less, while TD Cowen is more pessimistic at one in three, though both Novogratz and Garlinghouse say the bill could still be done in May.
The law of clarity Missing The window was marked up for April after the Senate Banking Committee allowed the month to close without scheduling a hearing, with Eleanor Terrett reporting that no notice came from Chairman Tim Scott or Republicans on the Banking Committee before the informal recess on Friday. The absence of any formal announcement effectively removed April from the bill’s legislative calendar and shifted all momentum toward the second week of May as the new target.
The April CLARITY Act deadline was missed because the Warsh hearings consumed the committee’s time
The April committee calendar was dominated by the confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh, whose blockade by Sen. Thom Tillis created competing pressures on the same senators negotiating the final text of the Clarity Act. Such as crypto.news I mentionedWith the dissolution of Warsh’s confirmation process following Tillis’s April 27 announcement, the committee’s most pressing competitive commitment was eliminated. The Banking Commission is now expected to be released in the first or second week of May, according to multiple industry and Senate sources. However, analysts constantly to caution That even successful coding in early May may not leave enough operational time to clear all five sequential hurdles before the May 21 Memorial Day holiday closes the legislative window.
The math behind the remaining time
The bill’s path from successful Banking Committee markup to presidential signature requires five successive steps: a committee vote, a 60-vote minimum Senate vote, reconciliation of the Banking and Agriculture Committee versions, reconciliation with the House text beginning in July 2025, and presidential signature. Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorne warned that if signs decline after mid-May, the probability of a passage in 2026 will decline sharply. TD Cowen is more pessimistic, putting the current passage odds at one in three and citing CFTC hiring gaps, predictive market policies, and Iran-related crypto payment concerns as additional hurdles off the calendar. Polymarket prices are currently at around 46%, well below the 82% high it reached earlier in the year. Such as crypto.news NotarizedGalaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz remains publicly optimistic, saying on a podcast this week that “this will get done” and that it “will probably be done in May.”
Why is April’s misstep important even if May succeeds?
The CLARITY Act missing its target in April matters beyond the immediate calendar. Such as crypto.news trackingEach previous deadline the bill missed, from January to April, was accompanied by the same pattern of near-term optimism followed by a new source of delay, whether from bank pressure, disputes over stablecoin yields, or now calendar competition from the Fed presidency process. The bill has now missed every official or unofficial deadline set for it since 2025. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong retracted his opposition in January and supports the current text. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse moved his forecast from April to May. The White House, the Treasury Department, and two key regulatory agencies have publicly supported the bill. The material has stabilized. The only remaining variable is whether the Senate Banking Committee is able to move the bill forward before midterm campaign politics permanently consume the legislative floor.
An early May date remains the goal, but the final text of the bill has not yet been released for the required 48-hour public review period, which must precede any committee vote, a Senate aide familiar with the negotiations told Terrett.
