The July 4 target date for advancing cryptocurrency market structure legislation through the Senate now looks less certain, according to Galaxy Digital’s head of research.
Senate calendar creates a bottleneck
Alex Thorne reviewed his book probability The estimate for passage of the CLARITY Act in 2026 is 75% to 60%, citing a Senate schedule that has become increasingly crowded with competing priorities.
Next week’s agenda is expected to be largely taken up by FISA-related companies after a reauthorization vote failed, leaving little room for cryptocurrency legislation to move forward.
Thorne said the obstacle was no longer political will, as support for the bill had not collapsed. The problem is time.
I just sent this memo to clients to reduce the odds of passage of the Clarity Act of 2026 from 75% immediately after markup to 60% today
I said in May that the Senate calendar was one of the biggest hurdles, and that picture has gotten worse. Last night the FISA vote failed, so now the next one… pic.twitter.com/2EcxMb3Hwh
– Alex Thorne (@intangiblecoins) June 5, 2026
Unresolved issues add to the delay
Two sticking points remain on the table: the legislator’s ethics rules and the illicit financing provisions associated with the bill. Neither has been resolved, and lack of action on both fronts has further complicated the path forward.
Despite the lower odds, Thorne said he remains optimistic about the bill’s chances of eventually being passed — though he cautioned that the timeline is now more fluid than many had assumed.
The CLARITY Act is widely considered to be the most significant cryptocurrency legislation currently before Congress. Its main goal is to settle the long-running dispute between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over who regulates what in the digital assets space.
Under the proposal, tokens classified as commodities would fall under oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), while those considered securities would remain with the SEC — a distinction that would reshape how exchanges operate and what compliance requirements apply to cryptocurrency projects.
Supporters say federal clarity on those limits would reduce regulatory uncertainty and prevent cryptocurrency development from migrating overseas.
A window may be closed
Senator Cynthia Lummis had previously pointed to July 4 as a marker to move market structure legislation in the Senate.
Thorne’s revised number puts pressure on that unofficial target. His assessment reflects constraints on the timeline, not a shift in the way lawmakers view the bill itself.
For cryptocurrency stakeholders awaiting regulatory certainty, the revised forecasts indicate a potentially longer path toward comprehensive legislation.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
