Bitcoin (BTC) achieves its strongest single-day returns on US federal holidays, according to a study by CoinGecko covering May 2013 to May 2026, with New Year’s Day producing an average next-day return of +2.01% and a win rate of 84.6%.
The research analyzed 4,753 daily price observations and found that US holidays produced an average next-day return of +0.77%, nearly four times the +0.19% non-holiday baseline.
The holiday effect skews very positive
In terms of win rate, Columbus Day also reached 84.6%, with an average of +1.70% the next day. Christmas Day had a smaller gain of +1.46% with a win rate of 53.8%, while Labor Day recorded +1.22% with a win rate of 69.2%, according to CoinGecko.
Two holidays buck this trend. Martin Luther King Jr. Day averages -0.84%, influenced by Bitcoin’s -18.65% drop on January 15, 2018. Independence Day averages -0.26%, with both holidays recording win rates below 50%.
Researchers at CoinGecko describes New Year’s Day signals new capital allocations for January and December Tax loss sale repercussions.
The effect persisted even when Bitcoin prices ranged from $313 in 2015 to $93,507 in 2025, despite the fork. Price forecasts for 2026 between bulls and bears.
The effect of day of the week fades over longer horizons
During the trading week, Monday and Wednesday are tied at +0.38% next day average returns. Thursday is the only day with a negative average of -0.09%.
The gap between weekdays and weekends was only 0.01%, much narrower than documented Seasonal effect hits the top.
Over a 365-day period, each day of the week yielded returns between 142.15% and 144.56%. CoinGecko described the spread as negligible for Bitcoin volatility.
Data indicates Holiday timing may add marginal value In short horizons. Whether it is Santa pool pattern Extending preparation into January next year remains an open question.
this post CoinGecko found that Bitcoin pumps more aggressively around US holidays appeared first on BeInCrypto.
