Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $78,000 on Friday, hitting its highest level in over two months as a confirmed double bottom break fueled momentum towards the $80,000 area.
The rally came after Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz under the terms of a ceasefire, triggering a widespread risk-off movement across stocks and cryptocurrencies. However, analysts remain sharply divided on whether BTC can sustain the push through heavy public resistance.
The weekly close holds the key to $80,000
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading for $77,922, just below the psychological level of $80,000 last tested on January 31, 2026.
The increase comes after reports indicating this Iran has completely opened the Strait of HormuzAmid continuing ceasefire conditions.
Against this backdrop, eyes remain open on whether Bitcoin price can reclaim the $80,000 psychological level this weekend, which could attract tailwinds from risk-on sentiment.
Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC held itself above the top of the double bottom formation near $73,000, putting the price in a positive weekly closing spot.
However, he warned that a similar setup in March ended with a bullish wick and subsequent rejection.
โBitcoinโs advance on the daily time frame has been promising, enabling the price to sustain itself above the top of the double bottom formation at around $73,000… The next weekly close will be the most important to watch.โ books Richt Capital.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has flipped previous resistance levels near $73,000 to support, with consecutive daily closes above the previous breakdown areas.
If this behavior continues, this could confirm a breakout from the consolidation range for several weeks.
Meanwhile, prediction market everything Now, there is about a 40% chance that Bitcoin will reach $80,000 this month, but… Several key levels remain in focus during the second quarter.
Trader Ted Bellows has identified $76,000 as a key recovery level that could push the price into the $78,000 to $80,000 range.
โThe key area for Bitcoin here is $76,000 and a recovery could push BTC towards the $78,000 to $80,000 area. This is where I would short sell Bitcoin.โ books Ted.
In fact, Bitcoin’s foray past $76,000 has provided an opening for long positions, with a brief test of the $78,000 threshold on Friday surprising many naysayers. According to Coinglass data, nearly $100 million worth of short positions were liquidated in the past hour.
Bear market warnings temper optimism
Despite the short-term bullish structure, Rekt Capital also flagged significant headwinds. He said that for BTC to build sustainable upward momentum, it would need to reclaim $82,500 and break a series of lower highs that have been going on for months.
History indicates that no significant event will occur, for nearly six months Bear market Likely to stay.
The 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which tends to act as resistance during bear markets, is directly in the current price path. Wider The oil shock from the Hormuz crisis It adds another layer of overall uncertainty.
BTC is also congregating under the overall triangle that collapsed months ago, a pattern that was resolved in 2014 by distribution to the downside.
QCP Group echoed the warning, Pointing Derivatives desks still prefer downside protection. The rally appears to be spot price driven and fragile rather than a structural change in trend.
Ted Pillows separately revealed plans to sell Bitcoin near the $79,000 to $80,000 area, citing a pattern of two recent local peaks where the price surpassed the highs of a capitulation candle before reversing.
Data signals accumulate on the chain but need to be confirmed
At the same time, multiple Indicators on the series Mixed signals flashed throughout April. CryptoQuant Analyst Woo Mink Yu He pointed out to the Bitcoin Common Market Index, or BCMI, which fell to a range of 0.2 to 0.3.
This region has historically been characterized by deep currency devaluation.
โWe are entering the โzone of value accumulationโ. The data suggests that the downtrend has become limited compared to the long-term uptrend. However, wait for prices to stabilize to confirm the indicator’s bottom signal. books Cryptocurrency Analyst Womenkyu.
Supporting the healthy bull case, separate CryptoQuant data showed that open interest on Binance has declined even as prices have risen.
A rally based on spot demand rather than leverage significantly reduces the risk of sudden liquidation.
Meanwhile, exchange flows on Binance have fallen to 2020 levels, suggesting that holders would rather remain aggressive than sell aggressively.
However, a separate data point indicated nearly 11,000 bitcoins per hour moving to exchanges this week, the highest rate since December 2025.
Large holders may be in a position to distribute if the rally extends further.
Previous forecast for April Bitcoin is expected to reach the mid-$70,000s by the end of the month. Friday’s daily close will likely determine whether BTC’s break above $77,000 will translate into a real push towards $80,000 or will be another failed attempt at another failed attempt. Broader bear market structure.
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