Prediction market traders are betting on it SpaceX (Nasdaq: Spex) will end in June 2026 with a market value of less than $ 3 trillion, according to data from Polymarket.
The market, wondering whether SpaceX’s valuation will reach certain levels by June 30, assigns an 11% probability to the company reaching a market value of $3 trillion.
The odds drop to 3% for a $3.5 trillion valuation and just 1% for a $4 trillion valuation. Meanwhile, traders see only a 6% chance of SpaceX falling below its $1.5 trillion valuation.
Overall, the current market forecast odds suggest that traders view a move to $3 trillion as possible but unlikely before June 30.
The highest market implied probabilities remain concentrated below this threshold, indicating expectations that the stock could consolidate after its rapid post-listing gains.
Pricing is suggested Cryptocurrency market Participants expect SpaceX’s valuation to remain largely within its current range through the end of the month, despite the stock’s strong post-IPO performance.
SpaceX stock is cooling
It is worth noting that after A Huge post-IPO rallySpaceX ended Friday’s session at $185 per share, down about 3.6% on the day, giving the company a market value of about $2.4 trillion.
SpaceX completed its historic public debut in June 2026, raising nearly $75 billion at an initial valuation of about $1.8 trillion.
After the IPO, shares rose as investor demand pushed the company’s market value above $2 trillion and at times toward the $2.5 trillion range.
Meanwhile, the debate over SpaceX’s market value has intensified since the company’s public listing.
Bulls point to the company’s dominant position in commercial space launches, and continued expansion StarlinkAnd the integration of artificial intelligence capabilities after its merger with xAI.
Supporters say these companies could generate much higher revenues over the next decade. SpaceX generated approximately $18.7 billion in revenue through 2025, with Starlink serving as its primary profit-generating segment.
However, critics contend that SpaceX stock’s current valuation actually reflects overly optimistic growth assumptions.
At valuation levels above $2 trillion, the company trades at revenue multiples that significantly exceed those of most large-cap technology companies.
Concerns also remain about profitability, capital expenditure requirements, execution risks related to Starship’s development and the potential impact of future equity unlocking on the share price.
