The ramp-up of Nigeria’s 650,000 barrels per day refinery has reduced imports of clean products to West Africa and redirected tanker flows around the region, according to analysts.
West Africa’s imports of clean refined products fell to 765,000 bpd in May from 997,000 bpd in April, a 23% decline, S&P Global Commodities at Sea (opens in a new tab) data showed on June 10.
Analysts at shipping association BIMCO reported a higher decline of 44% over the same time frame. The decline in import volumes led to a 47% year-on-year reduction in tonne miles, reducing the region’s share of global tonne miles from 5.3% to 3.6%, BIMCO said in a June 10 research note.
“LR1 and LR2 product tankers recorded the largest declines, down 88% and 78% respectively, and together accounted for 55% of the total tonne-miles loss,” BIMCO said.
Tonne-miles of MR product tankers fell just 4% year-on-year during the April-May period, despite a sharp decline in imports from all major loading areas. BIMCO said a 34-fold increase in volumes from the Americas largely offset that decline, limiting the overall loss.
Historically, the Rotterdam to Lagos route has been a cornerstone of the MR tanker market; With Dangote’s refinery meeting more than 90% of Nigeria’s domestic demand by early 2026, these imports have declined, analysts at CAS said on May 15. “Data indicated a 39% year-on-year decline in Nigerian CPP imports by mid-2025, essentially removing a huge source of employment for MR tankers in the Atlantic,” CAS analysts said.
Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the rate of transport of 37,000 metric tons of clean products from the UK/continent to West Africa at an average of US$27.95 per metric ton in June 2025, down 14% from June 2024. The rate averaged US$36.19 per metric ton from June 1-9, 2026, amid broader support for freight rates from unrest in the East. Middle.
Dangote was commissioned in 2024 and reached production capacity of 650,000 barrels per day for the first time in February 2026.
According to government figures, the refinery supplied nearly 80% of Nigeria’s gasoline needs – its main fuel market – in April. After increasing its production capacity to 700,000 barrels per day, Dangote says it can serve 150% of recent consumption levels, albeit supported by higher imports of gasoline blends from mostly European countries.
New role
The decline in West African imports appears to reflect the declining role played by Lomé, Togo, as a major center for overseas warehousing and redistribution. Imports into offshore storage in Lomé, and re-exports from there to West Africa, saw a greater decline in volume compared to the region overall, Nils Rasmussen, senior shipping analyst at BIMCO, said in the research note.
“Since Lomé may never regain Nigeria’s volumes, it may lose its position as a major hub for import and marine warehousing along with demand for related tankers. However, it can remain an important maritime distribution hub for smaller markets and ports,” Rasmussen said.
Clean products are now shipped from Lagos to its West African neighbors, such as Ghana, Togo, and Ivory Coast, and further afield to South Korea, the United States, and Europe. The shift replaces long-haul imports with shorter regional “shuttle” flights, increasing the frequency of carrier calls but reducing overall tonne-miles compared to global imports, CAS analysts said.
CAS analysts said the refinery’s export strategy has led to increased demand for LR1 and LR2 tankers capable of transporting large volumes of products to international hubs such as Singapore or Rotterdam. “This shift from a destination for MRs to a source for LRs is reshaping global fleet distribution,” they said.
CAS analysts said the loss of lucrative gasoline supplies from Europe to Nigeria has created a surplus of MR tankers in the Atlantic Basin. While this would normally drive down freight rates, its impact was mitigated by refinery export volumes and the need for tankers to serve new regional hubs, analysts at CAS said.
Dangote has emerged as a growing export hub in the wake of the conflict in the Middle East, shipping a record 372,000 barrels per day of clean petroleum products in April, according to CAS data.
New capabilities
With its planned expansion to double its capacity by 2028, Dangote aims to offset greater volumes of imports that once flowed into the West African market and strengthen its role as a global export hub.
Moving beyond the limitations of the single-point mooring system, the company is also building a new offshore jetty to support smaller LR2 cargoes and in regional markets such as Namibia, where it is building a 240 million barrel tank farm.
The fully automated systems at Lekki Deep Sea Port – including automated docking and digital clearance through a computerized terminal operating system – are designed to reduce cargo waiting times from more than 50 days to just two days. “For larger LR2 tankers, this precision significantly reduces vessel turn times, reducing port residence time and demurrage accumulated expenses, which is critical to maintaining the high-speed export schedule the refinery requires,” CAS analysts said.
source: Platts
