“forAt the end of the first quarter of 2026, global freight orders reached a 17-year high, reaching 191 million compensatory gross tons (CGT). “This equates to 17% of the global fleet, the highest proportion since 2011. The order book has been boosted by rising newbuild contracting throughout the 2020s, and more recently by the highest quarterly contracting of crude oil tankers in history,” says Felipe Gouveia, Director of Shipping Analysis at BIMCO.
During the first quarter of 2026, newbuild contracting rose 40% year-on-year to 17.6 million compensation gross tons (CGT), driven by a tripling of new tanker orders and a rebound in LNG tanker bookings. Overall, tankers accounted for 32% of total contracting, the highest share since the second quarter of 2017. Despite this significant year-on-year increase, newbuild contracting fell 17% quarter-on-quarter, amid a decline in dry bulk orders. Breakbulk contracting increased during the last quarter of 2025, largely due to increased demand for larger vessels.
“So far during the 2020s, newbuild contracts have been 47% higher than the average during the 2000s, driven by stronger market conditions in larger segments, a larger fleet overall and an increased need for fleet renewal. This has contributed to higher newbuild prices and longer lead times at shipyards, with 57% of contracts expected to be delivered so far this year after 2028,” says Gouveia.
Some shipping sectors now have relatively large order books. The ratio of order book to fleet rose to 22% for crude oil tankers, 19% for product tankers, 37% for containers, and 40% for liquefied natural gas. For crude oil and product tankers, these newbuildings are expected to support fleet renewal, as 21% and 17% of the fleets involved are now over 20 years old, the age at which recycling is typically done. In contrast, only 4% of the container fleet and 8% of the LNG fleet are over 25 years old, although these sectors are expected to see higher growth in demand.
Chinese shipyards remained the dominant choice for shipowners, accounting for 70% of contractings in the first quarter of 2026. Korean shipyards accounted for another 20%, supported by stronger orders for LNG carriers. In contrast, contracting at Japanese yards fell 83% year-on-year to just 1% of new orders, the lowest share since at least 1996, reflecting limited capacity, long lead times and low competitiveness.
“In the medium term, already bloated order books across many large shipping segments could contribute to a slowdown in newbuilding contracting. Long lead times at shipyards and rising newbuild prices, coupled with high market uncertainty regarding sailings in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz and the availability of alternative fuels, could also negatively impact contracting,” says Gouveia.
Source: BIMCO
