Bitcoin is still trading above $60,000, but there are questions about whether this area has already been reached. Become a total bottom For this correction or whether another incident The price can still be pulled back In that area. Technical analysis using Bitcoin’s weekly RSI, previous cycle support, and the 21-week and 50-week EMA trend represents the upside of this trend, but bears can still argue that Confirmation has not arrived Until Bitcoin breaks the weekly EMA structure.
Bitcoin may have already hit bottom
The strongest argument that Bitcoin may have already bottomed is from the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI). According to For the joint thesis By Cryptoposeidon on X Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has fallen below 30 only four times in history. The first three came around the January 2015, December 2018 and June 2022 lows, all of which later became overall bottom areas.
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Going back to January 2015, Bitcoin’s RSI dropped to around 28 when the price fell to $200. A similar pattern emerged in December 2018, when the RSI fell below 30 at around $3,500, followed by about three months of sideways accumulation before Bitcoin rallied. The third case was in June 2022, in the depths of the bear market that followed Luna’s collapse.
The fourth reading came in early February 2026, shortly after Bitcoin collapsed to a bottom around $63,000, and This supports the proposal That Bitcoin may have already gone through a major capitulation phase.
The weekly candlestick time frame chart below also shows the RSI recovering from a lower range similar to previous bear market lower areas, with the expected path Which indicates this momentum It could spend more time rebuilding before a stronger move returns in 2027.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @CryptoPoseidonn on X
What does confirmation and a return to $100,000 look like in reality?
The last two bear markets took 364 days to go from peak to trough. The current patch is now 236 days old, leaving 128 days Bitcoin window To achieve another low if it follows the same timing pattern.
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However, looking to November 2022, Bitcoin broke below the previous cycle peak of $19,900 and collapsed to $15,500, briefly spending below $16,000. This collapse was driven by the FTX collapse, a black swan event that simultaneously liquidated billions of dollars in assets and obliterated confidence. Without a similar stimulus shock, current cryptocurrency market dynamics lack the mechanism needed to keep prices below $60,000 during the remaining 128-day window to reach the bottom.
Bitcoin’s long-term support range is between $58,000 and $66,000, with the February 2026 low falling within this range. Bitcoin could still reach $55,000 or even $50,000 In the liquidation incident, But spending a long period of less than $60,000 would require a very strong bearish catalyst.
On the other hand, a retracement and monthly close above the weekly moving average and $80k in June 2026 would change the conversation from “is $60k the bottom?” to “How quickly will Bitcoin rebuild towards $100,000?” At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $72,860, down 1.2% over the past 24 hours.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
