This analyst believes that now may not be the time to turn bullish or buy Bitcoin.
Bitcoin (BTC) has remained under pressure over the past week, falling from around $77,000 to around $73,140. The cryptocurrency asset saw several sharp declines during this period, including a notable decline near $72,600 on May 28.
The recent price action indicates that the bear market is still incomplete and that deeper losses may lie ahead before the recovery begins.
“The fifth stage is coming”
In his latest weekly report Dr. Proffitt He said The broader market structure has not changed and Bitcoin is still advancing through the later stages of a bear market. According to the analyst, this stage is characterized by fatigue, sideways trading, and increasing frustration among market participants.
He said these conditions are already evident in Bitcoin’s recent price action and he believes they indicate that the market is close to moving into Phase 5, which he identified as the true capitulation phase of the cycle.
Dr. Proffitt expects the fifth phase to begin once Bitcoin drops below $60,000. A break of this level is expected to accelerate panic across the market and trigger a sharper decline. He added that the next stage may witness forced selling by long-term shareholders, the collapse of a major stock exchange or a large market participant, or other black swan-type events that further weaken investor confidence. The analyst argued that bear markets rarely unfold in a straight line, and instead tend to be long, stressful and devastating for participants, which is why he believes many investors continue to underestimate downside risks.
Although Bitcoin has retreated from its highs, Dr. Proffitt does not believe the market has reached its final bottom. He continues to do so He predicts That Bitcoin will eventually fall to the $40,000-$50,000 area before the bear market ends. Based on his calculations, he believes that the period from September to October 2026 is the most likely period for this bottom to form.
The analyst also pointed to several upcoming US economic data, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI, ADP employment numbers, and non-farm payrolls, as important events for financial markets. He explained that any signs of weakness in employment data combined with persistent inflation would put the Fed in a difficult position.
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I’m looking Ahead of a June FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, the analyst said markets appeared to be pricing in a dovish policy stance, but he remained skeptical that such an outcome would materialize.
The derivatives market is still struggling
Another factor supporting a similar view is the current state of the Bitcoin derivatives market. According to another analyst, Darkvost, the sector has yet to fully recover from the massive liquidation event that occurred on October 10, when nearly 71,000 BTC were wiped out of open interest across major exchanges within hours. While activity has improved since then, total open interest across the Bitcoin derivatives market, excluding the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, remains below pre-liquidation levels, with approximately 351,000 BTC currently outstanding, down from approximately 375,000 BTC prior to the event.
However, Binance has done just that Disagree This trend, which has increased its open interest and market share since October. This trend could indicate that trading activity is becoming increasingly concentrated on the stock exchange as investors gravitate towards deeper liquidity and market depth.
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