Every time institutional buyouts have reached 500% of miners’ daily production before, BTC has gained 24% over the following month.
Institutions are buying Bitcoin (BTC) at more than five times the rate that miners are producing it, and according to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, this gap has historically come before huge price gains.
In a post dated May 4, Edwards said that each past instance of this demand-to-supply ratio has produced an average return of 24% over the following month, which, from current levels, would take Bitcoin to about $96,000.
What the data shows
The number is 500% Come It tracks daily institutional purchases, primarily by public companies and ETFs, for the approximately 450 bitcoins mined daily since the halving in 2024.
“Every time it’s been this high before, the price has gone up over the next week,” Edwards said. “The average return in previous cases is +24% over a month from here, which would come out to about $96k.”
Earlier today, Bitcoin Paid last $80,000 for the first time since January. They have traded at levels ranging from $78,000 to $80,500 over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko, and are up 20% over the past 30 days.
The rally sparked a wave of forced liquidations, resulting in the loss of more than $162 million in short positions over a 24-hour period, based on data from CoinGlass.
Trading volume also jumped by 95% within 24 hours, reaching about $34 billion.
Other analysts have added weight to the bullish case, but with varying degrees of conviction. For example, trader Taiki Maeda wrote that… expected A strategy to buy $2 to $3 billion worth of Bitcoin over the next two weeks through its STRC tool, with acquisitions likely to “accelerate through May 14.”
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For his part, cartographer Ali Martinez He pointed out to a multi-decade upward trend line from which Bitcoin has rebounded in 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2022, arguing that the recent drop to $65,000 indicates “a bottom may be in.”
The other side of the coin
BTC crosses over $80,000 on the heels of 12% It rises Last month, but according to CryptoQuant, the increase was Nourish it Almost exclusively through perpetual futures interest, not spot trading.
She noted that Bitcoin’s apparent demand index, which tracks spot activity on-chain for 30 days, remained negative throughout the entire April rally.
“The divergence between rising prices and contracting spot demand is one of the clearest signals on the chain that price gains are speculative rather than structural,” the company wrote, adding that this demand structure mirrors what was seen at the start of the 2022 bear market.
