Is a 60% Bitcoin Collapse Still on the Table? The analyst points to Wall Street

This is the scenario in which Bitcoin could drop to $24,000.

Diplomatic efforts between Iran and the United States showed early signs of progress after senior officials from both countries held talks in Switzerland.

Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan said the discussions were constructive, with both sides agreeing to a 60-day timetable to reach a final agreement. More technical meetings are scheduled to be held in the Bürgenstock resort later this week. Optimism surrounding the talks briefly pushed Bitcoin (BTC) above $64,000, though the asset later gave up some gains and fell below that level.

However, tensions between the two countries remain as the deal was not signed by June 19 as promised, and there are new attacks between Israel and Lebanon. One analyst has outlined a potential negative scenario for Bitcoin if broader market conditions deteriorate.

Worst case scenario

Bitcoin could fall to $23,979 in 2026 if the broader stock market suffers a crash of more than 50%, according to technical analyst Jesse Olson. he subscriber A two-week Bitcoin chart depicting the potential for BTC to fall towards the $23,980 level, based on a volume-weighted long-term support line derived from its Market Sniper Pro VWAP indicator.

Such a move would likely require a significant stock market pullback, Olson said, adding that he does not expect Bitcoin to drop to zero.

Meanwhile, another prominent market commentator, Dr Proffitt, He said Bitcoin is forming a bearish flag on the daily chart, while growing optimism in the market is creating less liquidity than current prices. Bitcoin’s recent rise, he said identical His previous forecast explained that prices could revisit the same levels several times during sideways trading. He expects the asset to eventually fall towards the $54,000-$56,000 range before finding the market bottom at lower levels.

Institutional demand lags

From June 14 to June 18, you can buy Bitcoin ETFs opinion Net outflows of $227 million and extended their losing streak to six straight weeks.

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CryptoQuant Darkfost analyst as well Highlight Weak Institutional Appetite for Bitcoin She said the Coinbase Premium Index has remained largely negative in recent weeks. The index compares BTC prices on Coinbase Advanced and Binance to measure the behavior of professional and retail investors.

According to Darkfost, negative readings meant that institutions trading on Coinbase were selling more aggressively than retail investors on Binance, creating downward pressure on prices. He added that the wider price gap between the two stock exchanges indicates a greater difference in investor behavior. Institutional investors are not trying to get to the bottom of the market; Instead, they prefer to wait for stronger price performance and clearer signs of recovery before increasing their exposure to Bitcoin.