The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 100.2 after retesting the rising trend line that has supported it since May 2011. The resistance area at 100.5 continues to limit the recovery.
BeInCrypto examined the monthly, weekly and daily charts to map out the next potential move. The Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on June 16-17 could decide the direction.
The US Dollar Index is defending a trend line that has been in place since 2011
The monthly chart shows a rising trend line that has defined the dollar’s long-term direction since May 2011. The line was roughly retested in June 2014 and confirmed again in June 2021.
In February 2026, the indicator returned to this line again. So far the level has remained stable.
The broader structure also remains constructive. The DXY has posted a series of higher and higher lows over the past 15 years, including a 2022 peak near 115.
If the trend line holds, the current retest could become the next higher low. It is possible that a repetition of previous cycles could push the index above the 115 level.
Dollar strength is important to cryptocurrency investors because of Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-term inverse relationship With DXY. However, the monthly relative strength index (RSI) remains neutral and does not indicate clear momentum.
The weekly chart is still treating the recovery as a correction
The weekly time frame complicates the bullish picture. The DXY rose in a parabolic path from December 2020 until September 2022, peaking at 114.80. The breakout from this parabola started a long distribution period and downtrend.
Within this downtrend, the index recorded a swing high near 110.18 in early 2025. The ensuing decline bottomed at 95.55.
From this perspective, the ongoing recovery looks like a correction rather than a new uptrend. The key zone is near 99.5 to 100, where previous support has turned into resistance.
A weekly close above this area would confirm the validity of the upward trend Go scenario. Conversely, a rejection will likely lead to a resumption of the decline back to 95.55. Meanwhile, the weekly RSI reads 57, indicating neutral momentum.
DXY price prediction hinges on the 100.5 resistance area
The daily chart provides the most detailed view of the battle. The support area near 97.5 was retested twice to form a double bottom or W pattern.
The measured target for this formation is at 101.07, about 1% higher than the current price. However, this pattern remains uncertain. Resistance at 100.4 to 100.5 still covers the index, and the DXY was rejected from this area twice in March.
The second structure adds a downward angle. The recent price action has formed a rising wedge, a pattern that typically heads lower. Its target is near 98.5, about 1.7% below current levels. This target coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 98.547.
The daily RSI is at 67 and is approaching the overbought threshold at 70. Since the upper band of the wedge overlaps the resistance area, rejection on the first attempt seems likely.
Analysts recently called DXY the most accurate macro index For Bitcoin’s trend, so cryptocurrency traders should monitor these levels closely.
The Fed’s June 16-17 meeting is the most likely catalyst, with markets still anticipating a potential rate hike in December. A daily close above 100.5 will open the way to 101.07 and revive the long-term trend recovery thesis, while a breakdown of the wedge would expose 98.5 first.
this post Is the US Dollar Index (DXY) heading higher after retesting the 15-year trend line? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
