“Mimi is dead” or a big opportunity? DOGE flashes the same signal that preceded its largest rallies

The market views DOGE as a “dead meme,” but Alphractal said the chart suggests a “coiled spring” instead.

Dogecoin (DOGE) suffered a fresh decline of more than 5% on Wednesday amid ongoing selling pressure. However, the OG meme coin is trading at a level that has historically served as an accumulation zone, as identified by a largely overlooked setup based on the CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destruction) channel pattern.

According to Alphractal, the CVDD channel is a thermodynamic floor model that estimates the structural cost basis of an asset by weighting each on-chain coin movement according to its value and the number of days since its last move. Historically, Dogecoin price approaching the lower CVDD ranges has coincided with the deepest long-term accumulation areas, while touches of the upper Alpha CVDD range correspond to every major DOGE market top over the past decade.

DOGE’s next structural target is $0.85

Alfractal He said Dogecoin is currently trading near the lower CVDD range at around $0.10-$0.11, a level that was previously seen before significant price spikes. Similar setups appeared in late 2014, mid-2020, and mid-2023, with the meme later posting gains of around 25,000%, 18,000%, and 500% after those periods.

According to Alphractal, the current lack of a strong narrative around DOGE is not unusual, with key narratives typically emerging after accumulation phases. The analytics firm also explained that DOGE’s one-year sideways trading indicates accretion and rebuilding of the cost basis rather than weakness.

She added that traditional volume metrics may not fully capture this activity because the CVDD model focuses on value days rather than raw transaction volume, with the current chart showing what she described as “quiet absorption.”

Alphractal said its Alpha CVDD model, which it claims has successfully identified every major Dogecoin market top in previous cycles, currently places the upper target range at around $0.85. This means a potential increase of 7.7 times over current price levels.

“DOGE is the largest, most liquid, and most widely distributed memecoin in existence. It has the longest historical CVDD record of any meme asset in over a decade. The current print is mechanically identical to every previous bottom – the upper Alpha CVDD range has held up as resistance in every single cycle without exception. The market is reading DOGE as a dead meme. The chart is reading it as a coiled spring.”

Hack calls

Alphractal predicted that DOGE could achieve 3x gains before AI-themed currency memes become the main focus of the market.

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Meanwhile, analyst Ali Martinez also male The TD Sequential indicator has issued a buy signal on Dogecoin. Many other market watchers have suggested that the asset could be on the verge of a major breakout.