The East-West Pipeline in Saudi Arabia and the ADCOP Pipeline in the UAE are currently the two most important pieces of infrastructure of strategic importance in the MEG. Expansion projects on these pipelines and associated ports will enable a further reduction in dependence on SOH over the coming years. In particular, 2027 could see the UAE increase its bypass capacity from 1.8 million bpd to 3.6 million bpd.
The US-Israeli war on Iran has revived momentum behind a host of infrastructure projects aimed at reducing dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. As we expected in early May, progress is beginning to be seen primarily on projects that expand capacity within existing corridors, rather than new cross-border infrastructure – specifically, building additional parallel capacity alongside ADCOP to Fujairah, easing bottlenecks and enhancing the Saudi East-West Pipeline.
Continued investment by Gulf states in emergency energy infrastructure—including alternative export pipelines, storage facilities, and redundancy measures—reflects a growing recognition that relying on the Strait of Hormuz as the sole outlet for exports is no longer a wise long-term strategy. At the same time, these governments face the difficult task of balancing the huge financial costs of building and maintaining emergency infrastructure with the potential for prolonged disruption. This trade-off is further complicated by political uncertainty: while the current Trump administration will end its term within the next few years, the prospect of regime change in Iran appears considerably less likely, suggesting that the strategic risks associated with Tehran are likely to persist beyond the current US political cycle.
Accelerating the West-East pipeline project in the United Arab Emirates and expanding the Fujairah Port
Plans to expand the UAE’s ADCOP (Habshan-Fujairah) pipeline to bypass Hormuz were already underway before the current crisis, with ADNOC evaluating a second parallel line – a $3 billion, 300km project – as early as 2023. Unlike the current ADCOP route, this new line would allow Abu Dhabi’s offshore and western crude oil flows to reach Fujairah without crossing the Gulf, with the aim of doubling production capacity. Strait bypass capacity in the UAE from about 1.8 million barrels per day to more than 3 million barrels per day.
Recent reports indicate that the new pipeline – the West-East Pipeline Project – is 50% complete and is targeting start-up in early 2027, with the UAE Crown Prince directing ADNOC for rapid construction. This ambitious timetable has only become possible against the backdrop of the blockade of South Sudan and broader recognition of how deep regional dependencies on this waterway are. Given that the Fujairah port itself will need to be expanded, we see a mid-2027 commissioning (rather than early 2027) of the pipeline being more likely to meaningfully impact exports. Once this development is achieved, it will transport UAE offshore crudes – such as Upper Zakum, Das Blend and Umm Lulu – to the port of Fujairah.
– Expanding the Saudi East-West pipeline by 1-2 million barrels per day
Separately, Saudi Arabia has reportedly begun preliminary discussions about increasing the capacity of the East-West Pipeline by 1-2 million barrels per day, but industry sources familiar with the matter told Kpler that the expansion under consideration relates to building a parallel product pipeline.
Currently, the kingdom’s east-west pipeline can transport up to 7 million barrels per day from Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea. However, looking to the future, the limiting constraint is not the pipeline itself but the export terminals downstream: Yanbu’s sustainable export capacity is estimated at around 4.5-5 million barrels per day – around 1.5 million barrels per day from the North Yanbu crude oil terminal and around 3.0 million barrels per day from Al Mujij – leaving limited room to exceed this ceiling under existing infrastructure. Therefore, any significant increase in throughput will require removing bottlenecks in Yanbu’s loading infrastructure before expanding the capacity of the pipeline itself or adding a parallel pipeline. Given these bottlenecks, we expect this project to be realized over a longer period, with a possible start date from 2028 onwards.
Creating new corridors in the Mediterranean via Türkiye and Syria
A similar momentum is building in the Mediterranean region. In March 2026, Turkey proposed extending the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline south to Basra – a move that would create a full-fledged Mediterranean export corridor and significantly reduce Iraq’s dependence on Hormuz. Discussions on the Basra-Haditha-Baniyas pipeline have also gained momentum, and both projects are now back on the negotiating table. The Iraqi Council of Ministers allowed the state-run Basra Oil Company to sign preliminary agreements with a consortium led by Chevron to advance the two pipeline options. These preliminary agreements paved the way for the consortium to prepare technical and financial feasibility studies comparing the Basra-Haditha-Kirkuk-Ceyhan and Basra-Haditha-Baniyas routes. If these studies are completed by the end of the year, construction could begin as early as next year — although the projects themselves will take another 3 to 5 years to complete. If the Basra-Kirkuk-Ceyhan project is completed, this will naturally lead to an increase in exports from Ceyhan.
Source: Kepler
