nNewbuild orders in the tanker market, especially those of larger tonnage, have been a notable trend for 2026 so far. In its latest weekly report, Gibson Shipbroker said: “The Strait of Hormuz has been largely closed since late February, but despite the unprecedented energy crisis, tanker ordering activity for large carriers has intensified significantly this year, especially for VLCCs, the sector arguably most exposed to an extended Hormuz closure. More than 120 VLCCs have been ordered this year, and this number already exceeds the highest annual total for VLCC orders on record. This Adding to the strength is already investment over the last two years, which has taken the VLCC order book from around 5% of the current fleet in early 2024 to 35% today, and this percentage is much higher when considering only capital ships, given that a fifth of the VLCC fleet is already dark/sanctioned.
According to Gibson, “The Suezmax sector has also attracted significant new investment, albeit at a more measured pace than VLCCs. More than 60 tankers have been ordered year to date, the second highest level since 2015. As with VLCCs, strong investment in VLCCs has also been observed in recent years, meaning that this size group has the second highest order book, at 30% of the total current fleet, and much higher if dark/vessels are excluded.” Sanctioned from these accounts.
However, “investment in other size groups is lower compared to the larger sizes; again, orders for the year to date are also fairly close to the total investment seen last year. The order book looks healthier but this is partly due to a healthy flow of deliveries in 2025 and so far in 2026. At present, MR orders represent 20% of the current fleet, while the Aframax/LR2 order book is 18%. The LR1/Panamax order book is noticeably lower, But investment in these sectors has been like this over the past decade (with some exceptions during the period 2023-2025).”
Source: Gibson Shipbrokers Limited
Gibson added: “There are undoubtedly some strong fundamental reasons for the overall increases in new investment levels, not least the swelling size of the dark/blocked fleet and the rapidly aging fleet profile, with more than 21% of the fleet over 25,000 dwt already in the 20-year or older bracket and a further 28% in the 15 to 19 year bracket. Another driver has been the significant premiums required by modern used tonnage, which makes newbuilds more profitable.” Representing a more attractive long-term investment, on the demand side, Venezuela’s reset shifted demand to prime load overnight, and the US-Iran deal could trigger a similar shift for Iranian crude.
“However, we’ve been here before and the question is how much is too much? The answer will evolve over time depending on geopolitical events, the evolution of tanker trade and the pace of removal of old and/or dark/sanctioned vessels from trade. High profits leave little incentive for scrapping, but sooner or later that will change: either as chartering restrictions prevent older ships from trading, or as the weight of new deliveries impacts the market. And when that moment comes, scrapping capacity could face a serious test given that Saying: “Sheer volume of old cargo.”
Nikos Rousanoglou, Global Hellenic Shipping News
