Tldr:
- The revised text of the CLARITY Act is now expected next week after a White House meeting failed to resolve disputed ethics provisions.
- Polymarket’s odds of approval briefly dropped to a record high of 31% before recovering to 35%, compared to a 73% probability during May.
- Senate Democrats want stronger conflict-of-interest rules before providing the bipartisan votes needed to move legislation forward.
- The New York House hearing supports the case for cryptocurrency regulation, but does not advance the bill or change the timeline for a vote in the Senate.
The Clarity Act suffered a new setback after lawmakers failed to release revised text to the Senate after a meeting at the White House. Industry sources now expect the document to be released next week, adding to the uncertainty around Crypto market structure draft. Polymarket briefly priced the legislation’s 2026 approval odds near 31% before recovering to 35% on Friday.
The sharp drop from 73% in May reflects doubt about negotiators’ ability to resolve the moral dispute and secure enough Democratic votes. A House field hearing in New York may support that policy case, but it does not change the Senate’s timeline or advance the bill directly.
Delaying the text of the Clarity Act deepens the ethical confrontation in the Senate
President Donald Trump meet On Thursday, Republican senators will discuss the ethics provisions blocking the legislation. The meeting did not produce the promised updated draft. Industry leaders now expect the text to be submitted next week, journalist Eleanor Terret reported.
The delay is important because Senate leaders do not have enough time to build a bipartisan coalition before the August recess. The measure needs 60 votes to advance. This requirement makes the bill dependent on Democratic senators seeking stronger conflict of interest rules.
Senator Ruben Gallego described The language of republican morality is very weak. Democrats want tougher restrictions that include the president, vice president, senior officials and members of Congress with interests in cryptocurrencies. Trump’s 2025 financial disclosure, which reported crypto-related gains of more than $1 billion, exacerbated the dispute.
Senator Cory Booker kept the negotiations open but says the legislation requires a bipartisan path. Releasing the text without Democratic support could heighten opposition before negotiators can settle the more controversial language.
The legislation previously had bipartisan momentum. The Senate Banking Committee advanced H.R. 3633 by a vote of 15-9 on May 14. It was reported to the Senate on June 1 and placed on the legislative calendar under calendar number 423. No date has been set for a vote on it.
The odds of approval decline as the hearing offers no reform in the Senate
The House Financial Services Committee held a field hearing in New York at 10 a.m. ET on Friday. The session discussed how The law of clarity It could support digital asset innovation and create clearer federal oversight.
Among the witnesses were representatives of Nova Labs, Bullish, WisdomTree and Coin Center. Their testimony covered digital goods rules, market infrastructure, consumer safeguards, and software developer protection. However, the hearing had no authority over the Senate process.
Prediction markets reacted to the weaker schedule. A Polymarket contract for the CLARITY Act that becomes law in 2026 traded near 31% during Friday’s session. It later showed 35%, compared to 73% on May 11 and about 47% in early June.
The market requires HR 3633 to pass both chambers and receive the President’s signature by December 31, 2026. A Senate vote alone will not settle the contract. Lawmakers will still need to resolve differences between the Senate amendment and the version approved by the House.
The CLARITY Act would create a federal framework for digital goods and define the oversight roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its rules can affect Token issuersexchanges, brokers, custodians and non-custodial developers.
The late draft leaves compliance teams without final language on registration, disclosure, custody, developer liability and ethical restrictions. Those details will determine whether Democrats rejoin the coalition that moved the legislation through committee in May.
