Bitcoin (BTC) faced minor losses in the last days of trading. The ETF spot inflows streak, the longest in nine months, was broken by $225.1 million Squirting on Thursday 23 July.
Bitcoin was still trading within a long-term downward price trend. The inability of bulls to penetrate $67k The local supply zone gave control of the market back to the bears.
Here’s what that means for investors
Bitcoin MVRV and realized losses indicate this
The MVRV ratio, when it is higher than 1, shows that the total holder is still in profit. Historically, the depths of bear markets have only been reached when the MVRV falls below 1.
Cryptocurrency analyst Rei Researcher noted that this has not been the case so far in the current cycle. The market was far from overheated bull territory, but had not yet reached the bottom of the bear market.
Onchain data has shown that the cyclical capitulation may not be over yet. The recent rebound may have given some long-term bondholders an opportunity to reduce exposure ahead of any further weakness.
The Chess Onchain analyst noted that the supply of Bitcoin dividends was currently at a level 57.5%. the 30 day average A long-term SOPR holder must reclaim 1.0 to reliably signal the end of the downtrend. This measure is in 0.86 now.
With this occurring as a historical bar, the analyst found that the supply in the profit gauge was at a minimum 64%. Until the gauge rises back above these levels and stays there for a few weeks, any apparent price recovery that occurs can be considered a bearish regime.
Additionally, when prices began to rise in early June, bitcoin that was more than six months old rose to 12%-16% of foreign exchange inflows, and has declined since then 0.8%.
A group of owners who purchased between one month and two years ago have their cost basis in $72k-$102k window.
Excess supply poses another threat to any sustainable recovery. Therefore, another wave of selling and deeper capitulation to force stockholders to sell is a possibility that traders and investors should prepare for.
The data suggests that Bitcoin has not yet emerged from its broader bearish system.
Final summary
- The Bitcoin MVRV ratio has not yet dropped below 1.0, which has tended to mark bear market bottoms in previous cycles.
- It may be different this time, but the View in Profit and LTH SOPR metrics also indicate the same thing, which is that the current price bounce is within a bearish regime.
