Semiconductor stocks outperformed both big tech companies and cryptocurrencies in the first half of 2026. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 102%, while the Magnificent Seven fell 2% and Bitcoin (BTC) lost 33%, according to data from Deutsche Bank and CoinGecko.
Wall Street banks now disagree about the second half. Goldman Sachs expects investors to continue to support chipmakers, while Morgan Stanley says trade has already begun to decline.
How semiconductors will outperform big tech and crypto companies in the first half of 2026
Deutsche Bank’s semi-annual scoreboard ranked the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index as the world’s best-performing major asset. The index rose 102% between January and June, according to A table Shared by Schiffer Investment Research.
Korea’s chip heavyweight Kospi followed with gains of 89%, while Japan’s Nikkei added 35%. In contrast, the Nasdaq is up just 13% and the S&P 500 is just under 10%.
The Magnificent Seven, the group that dominated the US markets for two years, ended the half with a decline of 2%.
Cryptocurrencies fared worse. Bitcoin fell 33% in the first half, falling from about $87,500 to less than $59,000, CoinGecko data shows. Ethereum (ETH) is down 47%, and Solana (SOL) is down 41%. Traditional hedges provided no shelter either, with gold falling 7% and silver losing 18%.
ETF flows tell the same story. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF is up 72%, the iShares Semiconductor ETF is up 99%, while the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF is down slightly.
Meanwhile, memory and storage shortages have prompted chipmakers to raise prices as the industry approaches $1 trillion in annual revenue.
Goldman supports dividend earners while crypto trades like a spender
Brian Garrett, a derivatives specialist at Goldman Sachs, explained this difference in a client note last week, as I mentioned By stocktwits.
“One reason for the low exposure to Mag7 appears to be quite simple because it has been hiding in plain sight for months. The market is rightfully rewarding the names that are earning (capex beneficiaries, semiconductors, etc.) while simultaneously questioning the names that are spending (ultra expanders).”
Hyperscale companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into data centers. Markets are increasingly treating this spending as a cost with no certain return.
Meanwhile, companies that sell chips, memory and equipment are generating revenue today.
This logic hits cryptocurrencies hard. Bitcoin gains nothing from building AI, so it trades alongside spenders rather than winners. The pressure then intensified Michael Burry bubble warning Memory stocks were sent sliding this month.
The same divide has emerged within the cryptocurrency market. Render (RNDR) gained 17% and NEAR Protocol (NEAR) gained 18% in the first half, while most major coins fell more than 30%, according to CoinGecko. Both tokens sell exposure to computing power, the rarest resource in this cycle. However, this pattern is not universal, as Bittensor (TAO) and Fetch.ai (FET) are still declining.
Bitcoin miners occupy the middle ground. Riot Platforms continues to sell Bitcoin (BTC) while… Funding its AI huband rival miners are seeking similar data center deals.
Morgan Stanley sees a shift in chip trading
Michael Wilson, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, argued Monday that chip momentum is fading as investors shift toward super-expanders, Bloomberg I mentioned. Philadelphia’s index is down nearly 14% from its June record, though it is still 123% higher since September.
Cracks appeared before July. Micron’s strong outlook failed to sustain the rally, as did the Kospi Triggered circuit breakers In June. Therefore, Wilson favors ultracaps in the near term and expects them to ease spending plans.
Mislav Matejka, a strategist at JP Morgan, believes the rally will expand beyond technology in the second half.
“AI is unlikely to be the only story in town.”
For cryptocurrencies, this debate is more important than it seems. If capital exits the crowded chip trade and chases the laggards, Bitcoin ranks among the biggest laggards of available liquidity. Token It trades near $61,626 After a Short squeeze on the weekend He briefly raised it to about $64,000.
However, no major bank has identified digital assets as their next rotation target. The coming weeks will show whether Hyperscaler’s earnings confirm this shift, and whether any freed capital will return to cryptocurrencies.
this post Semiconductors Outperform Big Tech and Cryptocurrencies in H1: Is the Trade Trending? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
