Standard Chartered Bank’s head of digital assets research, Jeff Kendrick, announced on Friday that the cryptocurrency market has seen its down cycle, with Bitcoin recently falling to nearly $59,000, marking the bottom of the latest downturn — a 53% decline from October. Highest level ever Valued at $126,000.
“Winter is over. Welcome back to the crypto spring,” Kendrick wrote in a note on Friday, adding: “I believe we have now seen crypto asset prices decline for this cycle.”
Bitcoin had recovered to about $64,000 at the time of Kendrick’s note, representing a roughly 5% increase from the previous week. The bank maintains a target price of US$100,000 for Bitcoin by the end of the year – a forecast it first issued in February.
SpaceX’s IPO drains crypto liquidity — then releases it
One of the two primary catalysts cited by Kendrick is Elon Musk’s historic stock debut on the Nasdaq. SpaceXwhich priced its $75 billion IPO at $135 per share under the ticker SPCX on June 12.
Shares opened sharply above their IPO price, and posted gains almost 20% on the day of first appearance. Kendrick argued that a large portion of recent Bitcoin ETF outflows — which have totaled more than $5.72 billion since the second week of May, among the steepest “since inception” — were driven by investors liquidating cryptocurrency positions to secure SpaceX allocations. With the IPO now underway, specific selling pressure may rise, he said.
The overlap between cryptocurrency demand and SpaceX demand was already appearing in real time. On Hyperliquid, SpaceX Perpetual Contracts (SPCX) had accumulated more than $240 million in open interest and $220 million in 24-hour trading volume ahead of their debut – making them the eighth largest asset on the platform.
Iran is the alternative
The second catalyst relates to geopolitics. Possible peace agreement between Before the G7 summit next week, the United States and Iran can ease pressure on global oil supplies, which have remained limited since the start of hostilities in the Middle East.
Lower oil prices will later cool rising US Treasury yields – which have affected risk assets such as cryptocurrencies by making risk-free government debt more attractive.
The price of West Texas Intermediate crude fell almost 1.5% on Friday to about $85-86 per barrel. However, the narrative of the peace agreement remained fragile.
President Trump said Thursday that a hack could happen this weekend, but later posted on Truth Social that the deal announced was not what was agreed upon, warning Iranian officials to “work together” — adding further uncertainty to the overall outlook.
Three Bitcoin price signals to watch for
Kendrick provided three confirmation signals that would validate his call. First, expect Strategy to announce an additional Bitcoin purchase on Monday, as CEO Michael Saylor’s purchase date has been a reliable demand signal for institutional appetite.
Second, US Bitcoin ETFs are expected to return to positive daily net inflows on Friday.
Third, he wants to see continued declines in global oil prices as the Iranian diplomatic situation develops.
If all three come true, Kendrick’s spring crypto thesis gains its clearest validation yet — suggesting that institutional and macro forces are finally aligning to push Bitcoin back toward the bank’s year-end target of $100,000.
