TRecent developments in the Strait of Hormuz could once again increase demand for ton-miles in the tanker market. In its latest weekly report, Gibson Shipbroker said that “over the more than 100 days of the Strait of Hormuz closure, the United States has proven to be the single most important source for replacing barrels, both for crude and clean products. The increase in US crude oil exports has been less than impressive: in the second quarter of the year, exports averaged about 5.2 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.4 million barrels per day compared to the 2025 average. The largest growth has been seen in a long time and is undoubtedly “This growth was mostly driven by the massive release of US crude oil reserves, supported by a modest increase in domestic US production. A similar trend was observed for clean exports, although here increases were more modest with total clean exports averaging nearly 3 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 450 thousand barrels per day above the 2025 baseline, with the largest gains in absolute terms recorded in trade to Europe, Africa and other countries.”
According to Gibson, “With the collapse of the ceasefire and the resumption of attacks in the Strait, exports from the Middle East and Gulf region are unlikely to rebound any time soon. So the need to replace barrels remains great but can the United States continue to deliver at such high levels? Commercial crude inventories fell significantly to their lowest level for this time of year since 2018. A further decline was also observed in levels of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which fell to 319.5 million barrels in early July, the lowest level in a year 1983. However, inventories have fallen by only 96 million barrels since late February (although 133 million barrels have been awarded), compared to the 172 million barrels announced in March, meaning there are still more barrels to come, although it is unclear what will happen to the 39.5 million barrels that were not sold in the last tender. Otherwise, further releases appear less likely, with concerns growing about the minimum level of reserve oil needed to maintain FUNCTIONALITY AND INDUSTRY WARNING The reserve must remain at least 20% full (about 143 barrels) for operational reasons. In any case, with domestic refining rates so high, US refineries can absorb much of the remaining amount, limiting the volumes that reach the export market. Preliminary AIS data show that weekly US crude oil exports have been in a steady decline since late May, falling last week to a three-month low.
“On the upside, US crude oil production is on the rise, with the latest estimates from the Energy Information Administration calling for an increase of 200,000 barrels per day this year and another 250,000 barrels in 2027. Forecasts have been revised upward in recent months amid higher oil prices and hedging by producers. The rig count is also responding, rising by more than 40 units year-on-year after eight straight weekly gains. With geopolitical tensions rising again, upward pressure is on oil,” Gibson said. “As prices rebound, further upward revisions to US crude production may also be possible, however, increased production cannot fully offset the loss of Strategic Reserve barrels once the current release program ends.”
Source: Gibson Shipbrokers Limited
“Trade dynamics are similar for clean product exports,” the shipbroker said. US refineries are operating at peak utilization rates, at about 96% in June, one of the highest rates seen over the past two decades, with exports as a result reaching a record high last week, according to EIA data. June, although levels have rebounded modestly since then. The situation in the PADD 3 region is less extreme, however, stocks there are also under pressure, while El Niño signals a lower-than-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic, with stocks falling, and even a single storm in the US Gulf could cause major disruption to the refining system; In addition, somewhat light spring maintenance operations increase the chances of unplanned power outages with the start of the fall harvest season, clean product exports likely to peak and flows likely to remain flat or trend downward in the coming months.
“Overall, the United States has done the bulk of the heavy lifting in keeping global markets supplied during the crisis, but its ability to continue to do so is diminishing. If renewed escalation in the Strait leads to another long closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world will find itself in an even more difficult position. With global inventories rapidly depleted in recent months, this is a recipe for much tighter supply, higher prices and significant downside risks for tanker markets,” Gibson concluded.
Nikos Rousanoglou, Global Hellenic Shipping News
