A There is a noticeable trend in the conveyor market, with a shift from clean conveyors to dirty conveyors. In its latest weekly report, Gibson Shipbroker said the “clean-to-dirty” shift first accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2025 with recent geopolitical developments further accelerating dirty operations in recent months. With the outbreak of war paralyzing the Middle East Gulf, nearly 2.4 million barrels of clean product have been removed from the tanker market. As regional crude oil exports and refining activity decline, cargo has fled the East in A mass exodus to the Atlantic Basin in search of work.
According to Gibson, “In the West, there was a significant operational shift as owners of painted LR2s dirtied up for high returns in dirty segments. This trend accelerated in April as TD25 spot earnings rose to an average of $153,250 per day (echo), up from $85,750 per day in February. While clean rates also strengthened, they lagged significantly as TC15 spot returns averaged (via Cape) Demand was supported by US crude oil exports rising by US$81,750 in April, compared to just US$27,000 per day in February, supported by wide-open Strategic Reserve releases, which fueled the TD25 path, while at the same time increased Aframax shuttle requirements for reverse discharge of VLCCs, driving regional demand, with total US Gulf export volumes reaching 485,000 barrels per day in April. “Up from 280k in January.”
“Outside the Atlantic, the Pacific served as a secondary refuge. After Middle Eastern naphtha was unloaded in Asia, many owners faced a dearth of clean export options and chose to pollute for trans-Pacific trade. This shift saw ships competing for TMX cargoes from Vancouver or ballast as far south as Argentina to take advantage of export facilities freed from bottlenecks. However, the narrative took a sharp turn in the latter half of April. The share of the covered LR2 fleet engaged in the dirty trade reached The roughly 52.5% drop, coupled with the influx of Aframax tonnage from the east and easing seasonal weather delays, has led to a “collapse” of prices toward pre-war levels, albeit still at historically high levels, the shipbroker said.
Source: Gibson Shipbrokers
“Looking ahead, the likelihood of dirty LR2s returning to clean trade remains limited,” Gibson added. “Even if re-crossing the Strait of Hormuz is achieved, the physical damage to Middle East refineries suggests a slow recovery in CPP export volumes, meaning fewer LR2s are needed for export volumes to fully recover. However, it is also important to note that cleaning dirty LR2s involves a cost and is not as easy as switching to dirty trade. That may be the case.” “It will also take some time for the LR2s to clean up and reposition westward, if Hormuz returns to normal, which could add upward volatility to LR2 prices.”
“Looking west, the Mediterranean and Black Sea remain a crucial variable. Russian crude and fuel oil exports have continued to decline following Ukrainian attacks on processing facilities. While the EU recently maintained a full offshore services ban on Russian crude, any reversal of this policy would change market dynamics. Such a ban would immediately push G7-compliant tankers out of Russian trade, and potentially create a short-term supply glut in traditional markets. However, this would ultimately be countered by Gradual load migration to dark Gibson noted that demand for Aframax could also come under pressure from lower Mexican exports as lower production and stronger domestic demand at refineries weigh on exports, although higher Venezuelan production and the prospect of increased Kurdish volumes from Ceyhan could offset any Mexican declines.
“Perhaps the most challenging chapter in this story lies in the looming supply pressure,” the shipbroker concluded. “83 LR2/Aframax newbuilds are scheduled to be delivered throughout 2026 – a level of fleet growth not seen since 2009. Unless clean volumes recover quickly, the earnings disparity is likely to lead to more dirty activity, creating a cascading effect that could ultimately drag down Aframax profits well, leaving the industry to navigate the High supply and uncertainty environment for the remainder of the year However, the sector has shown remarkable resilience in recent years and may surprisingly continue to trend upward.
Nikos Rousanoglou, Global Hellenic Shipping News
