At least seven oil tankers have circled close to Yemen since the Iran-linked Houthi movement announced a “maritime embargo” against Saudi Arabia on Monday, ship tracking data showed.
All ships were traveling either to or from Saudi ports, and of course made sharp changes after the ban was announced.
Nearly 15% of global maritime trade moves through the Red Sea, which connects the Mediterranean and the Gulf of Aden through two narrow points – the Suez Canal in Egypt and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa.
The Red Sea has been a major route for Saudi oil exports since the US-Israel war with Iran led to the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, severely restricting the flow of oil and gas from the Gulf.
This played a “key role in relieving pressure on global markets,” said Rosemary Kelanick of the US-based think tank Defense Priorities, and if the Houthis impose further restrictions on trade, “prices will rise.”
The day before the Houthis announced their blockade, 20 ships entered the Red Sea and 22 exited through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler.
Kelanic told BBC Verify that any Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden “will disrupt all international traffic, not just ships heading to Saudi Arabia.”
The European Union’s naval force in the region, Aspedes, recommended on Wednesday that “commercial vessels linked to Israeli, American or Saudi interests avoid crossing the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden until the threat level decreases,” according to a report seen by Reuters news agency.
Ship tracking data from MarineTraffic shows that the Rodos crude oil tanker, loaded with Saudi oil, departed for India from the Red Sea port of Muajiz on Monday evening. The Liberian-flagged ship set out south toward the Bab el-Mandab Strait, but returned about nine hours later and began sailing north instead.
The Liberian-flagged oil and chemical tanker Mika left the Saudi port of Jizan on Monday afternoon and also headed south before reversing course.
Ship tracking data shows that at least eight ships heading to the Red Sea made a U-turn instead of entering the Bab al-Mandab Strait from the south as well.
The Marshall Islands-flagged vehicle carrier Liu Jiangkuo was sailing to the Saudi port of Jeddah from China before changing course entirely on Monday in the Gulf of Aden.
The Hong Kong-flagged crude oil tanker sailing from China called New Prime also turned around while heading towards Saudi Arabia on Monday and now appears to be waiting in the Arabian Sea.
Marine risk management firm Vanguard said that while the reasons for each change in course cannot be independently verified, “the timing is consistent with the ban announcement.”
In an email to shipowners on Monday, which was seen by the BBC, the Houthis said: “Ships are prohibited from loading or unloading goods in any Saudi ports.” She added that ships “may be targeted anywhere within the scope of operations.”
The Houthis said that the ban they imposed came in response to the Saudi blockade of ports and airports in northwest Yemen, which is controlled by the Houthis.
Saudi Arabia condemned the allegation and pledged “to take all necessary measures to protect its ships in accordance with international law.”
Yemen has been ravaged by civil war since 2014, when the Houthis seized the capital, Sanaa, from the government. The conflict escalated in 2015, after a coalition of Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia intervened to try to restore the official government.
There has been an informal truce between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia since 2022. But last week, the Houthis fired missiles at an airport in southwestern Saudi Arabia in response to air strikes on Sanaa airport that they blamed on the kingdom.
The Houthis have previously caused severe disruption to the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which is 32 kilometers (20 miles) wide.
Shortly after the outbreak of the Gaza War in October 2023, the Houthis began attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, saying they were working to support the Palestinians. These attacks led to the sinking of four ships, the capture of one ship, and the killing of nine crew members.
Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has diverted more than 70% of its crude oil exports from the Gulf to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea via an east-west pipeline.
About four million barrels per day have been shipped from Yanbu in recent weeks, compared to about 973,000 barrels per day a year ago, according to data from Kpler and the marine analytics platform Signal Ocean.
Naveen Das, a senior oil analyst at Kpler, told the BBC that the only option left for the Saudis if the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is effectively closed is to transport oil all the way across the Mediterranean and around the southern tip of Africa to reach Asia.
Das added that the impact of the blockade on consumers will not be immediate, but the conflict with Iran has made the global energy system more vulnerable to such shocks. “We can sustain it for two weeks, three weeks, or even a month, but even then, we will see higher freight rates, higher energy prices, which leads to higher energy costs.”
Ships near the Red Sea also broadcast messages in an attempt to deter attacks, a common practice in the region since the Houthis targeted ships during the war in Gaza.
At least 50 ships in the area broadcast that they have armed guards on board, according to data from MarineTraffic.
Martin Kelly, of crisis management firm EOS Risk Group, told the BBC that captains would fear that “the Houthis may read your position wrong” and believe that their ships “have docked in a Saudi port in the past and therefore could be attacked.”
He added: “A lot of these ships are very large crude oil tankers. I think the damage will be catastrophic. There will definitely be deaths on board these ships.”
Source: BBC
