Key takeaways
- Tesla shares rose 1.4% to $396.65 during Monday’s premarket session, rebounding from Friday’s 6.6% decline.
- SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO was oversubscribed — well below the four to five times threshold that Wall Street considers successful
- Betting markets are placing a probability of between 43% and 50% for a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger by late 2026 or mid-2027.
- Analysts maintain a consensus “Hold” rating on TSLA with an average price target of $404.37.
- Company insiders have offloaded 55,218 shares of TSLA stock for a total of $20.6 million in the past three months.
Shares of Tesla ( TSLA ) jumped 1.4% to $396.65 during pre-market hours on Monday, paring losses after a steep 6.6% decline on Friday.
Friday’s contraction came on the heels of strong employment data that raised concerns about potential interest rate increases. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 4.2% during that session, sending technology stocks lower across the board. Broadcom’s lackluster quarterly results dampened investor sentiment.
By Monday morning, attention was turning to one company: SpaceX.
Elon Musk’s aerospace venture is set to finalize pricing for its IPO on Thursday. According to Reuters, the $75 billion offering attracted $150 billion in investor interest — more than doubling the offering.
While this number appears large on the surface, Wall Street professionals view it as disappointing. Successful IPOs typically achieve oversubscription levels of two to five times. For a high-profile deal like SpaceX, achieving a four- or five-fold oversubscription would indicate strong performance potential after its debut.
It is worth noting that the week has just begun. Investor appetite could fluctuate significantly in the coming days.
One pressing concern for Tesla shareholders is whether investors might liquidate TSLA positions to fund SpaceX purchases. This technical selling pressure can temporarily suppress the stock price, regardless of underlying business performance.
The Tesla-SpaceX connection deepens
Both companies have forged stronger relationships recently. Collaborative efforts include artificial intelligence initiatives and chip production capabilities. Forecasting platforms assign a meaningful probability to a possible combination – Calci estimates a 50% probability before May 2027, while Polymarket suggests a 43% probability before the end of 2026.
Any potential merger would occur after SpaceX makes its market debut. However, these probability assessments capture the market’s attention.
Tesla Trading began Monday at $391.00. The stock is currently trading within a 52-week range, bounded by $281.85 at the low and $498.83 at the peak. The 50-day moving average is $395.33, while the 200-day moving average is $416.11. Entering Monday’s session, TSLA stock was down 13% year-to-date while posting a 37% gain in the trailing 12 months.
During its most recent quarterly report, Tesla generated earnings per share of $0.41, marginally beating the analyst consensus of $0.39. Total revenue was $22.39 billion, slightly lower than the expected $22.96 billion. On an annual basis, revenues expanded by 15.8%.
Corporate Properties and Executive Transactions
Among institutional investors, Manchester Capital Management expanded its position in Tesla by 52.6% during the fourth quarter, ending the period with 18,449 shares worth approximately $8.3 million. Likewise, several additional investment firms have increased their allocations in recent quarters.
Executive trading activity paints a contradictory picture. CFO Vaibhav Taneja divested 3,000 shares at $450.00 on May 13, generating proceeds of $1.35 million. Board Member Kathleen Wilson Thompson sold 26,409 shares at $378.11 on April 30. Collectively, company insiders have liquidated $20.6 million worth of shares over the last 90 days.
Wall Street opinions remain divided. Deutsche Bank initiated coverage with a “buy” recommendation. Wedbush maintained its “outperform” stance along with a $600 price target. Jefferies continues to rate the stock as “Neutral.” GLJ Research maintains a ‘sell’ rating. The overall consensus from 44 analysts is listed as a “Hold” with an average price target of $404.37.
Tesla currently holds a market cap of $1.47 trillion and trades at a stock price multiple of 358.72.
