Cryptocurrency analyst Kevin, known online as Kev Capital TA, said he started buying Dogecoin again after the memecoin fell to what he described as a key long-term support area near $0.095. In a video Published on April 20, Kevin argued that the level is important because it aligns with the measured movement target of Dogecoin’s weekly bear flag and with a price area that has repeatedly served as support and resistance across previous sessions.
Dogecoin could be near a major turning point
Kevin said Dogecoin’s corrective move from its December 2024 cycle high near $0.49 has now largely achieved the downside target he has been monitoring for months. “If you take the measured action target for the bear flag pattern, you are essentially sitting at the exact same price as the measured action target,” he said, placing that target at around $0.095.
In his view, this level is not only a technical target, but a historically important area. Kevin pointed to August 2024, when Dogecoin bottomed near the same area before rising sharply in Q4, and to earlier periods in 2022, 2023 and early 2024 when the range served as a resistance, support or breakout retest level. “This is a major level, isn’t it? This is a major major area,” he said. “I found support here in January 2024 before we hit 23 cents. I found support here again in the summer of 2024 before we hit 49 cents.”
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However, Kevin stopped short of hitting a confirmed big bottom in Dogecoin. Its broader framework remains Centered around Bitcoinwhich he repeatedly described as the fundamental signal for the market. “Altcoin charts don’t live in their own world,” he said. “Bitcoin is the captain. Bitcoin is the king. Bitcoin is the queen. Whichever way you want to put it, whichever way you want to slice and dice it, that’s the way the market is going.”
This point shaped the rest of his thesis on Dogecoin. Kevin said he initiated a position at current levels, but only as part of a gradual accumulation plan that is largely dependent on how Bitcoin behaves in the coming weeks. “In our own group, I started a position in Dogecoin at these levels,” he said. “My plan is to continue allocating into it if I have the opportunity to. If Bitcoin goes down…then hopefully I will get the opportunity to very slowly allocate into Dogecoin all the way to $0.08, $0.07, $0.06, Maybe $0.05“.
Its near-term reading is constructive, but only to a limited extent. He pointed to improved weekly money flow, buy signals, upward movement in the weekly Stochastic RSI, and a bullish shift in the LMACD on lower time frames as evidence that the market is in late winter and early spring. But he said Dogecoin still faces a heavy technical ceiling before traders can talk about a real trend reversal.
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On the weekly chart, Kevin said Dogecoin needs to reclaim the 21-week EMA and 20-week SMA around the $0.11 low area, while the upper resistance bands lie around $0.136, $0.147, and $0.161 depending on the moving average used. On the monthly chart, he said the picture is less convincing. Dogecoin, according to Kevin, closed below the 100 EMA on a monthly basis for the first time in its history, while monthly momentum, money flow and the LMACD have yet to show the kind of reset that he associates with the end of a bear market.
“Treat it like a bear market right now,” he said. “This counter-trend rally is good, but for now, it’s still just a counter-trend rally in the cryptocurrency market until proven otherwise.”
This leaves Dogecoin in a familiar place: attractive enough for selective accumulation, but still reliant on Bitcoin to achieve it. Validate any broader reflection. Kevin said he expects the “true bottom” of the cycle to hit sometime between July and October if the record four-year pattern continues. Until then, his message was less about chasing Dogecoin itself and more about keeping an eye on the asset that continues to set the tone for everything around it.
At press time, DOGE was trading at $0.09558.
Featured image created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
