Marine risks rarely move in isolation. This week’s Naval Intelligence Brief tracks two very different, but strategically important, patterns of activity affecting commercial operators.
In the Western Indian Ocean, Somali piracy activity increased sharply during the first half of 2026. After years of relative repression, pirate action groups are showing renewed confidence, with recent attacks and approaches shifting towards the Gulf of Aden and Yemeni coastal waters.
Recent incidents have included approaching aggressive sailboats, small arms fire and, in one case, the firing of an RPG at an oil tanker. No successful boardings have been confirmed in the recent reporting period, but the frequency, geographic spread, and tactics observed suggest a more active threat environment for slower or less protected vessels.
To the east, the South China Sea continues to see rising gray zone pressure. Chinese maritime law enforcement activity around Taiwan-controlled areas, coupled with the rapid reclamation and infrastructure development at Antelope Reef, highlights the continued use of maritime presence, construction, and coercive pressure below the threshold of open conflict.
For operators, insurers and risk teams, the problem is not about a single incident. It is the broader direction of travel.
Piracy is reasserting itself in waters already affected by regional conflict, while gray zone activity in the South China Sea creates a more complex operational picture around disputed maritime areas.
Source: Dryad International
